I know - division previews AND week one predictions, all in one day. It's a lot of reading. Both of my readers are on overload right now. Mea culpa.
(all odds courtesy Oddshark)
Montreal (-3) @ Saskatchewan (+3)
You know the Riders have been salivating over this since the schedule was announced - vengeance! Well, sort of. You have to expect Saskatchewan will come out like gangbusters, but there's no better veteran core in the league than Montreal. They can handle it. The Roughriders look to be the class of the league, but if this were a best of seven, you'd need the full seven games.
Saskatchewan 36, Montreal 32
Toronto (+13.5) @ Calgary (-13.5)
On paper, easily the week's biggest mismatch - hence the astronomical line. Toronto better get used to it, especially against western teams and/or on the road. The Argos need time to gel, especially QB Cleo Lemon. Their defence will keep things respectable, though, and their defensive line will pose a stiff test for Calgary's new o-line. I wouldn't give them 13.5 points, put it that way. I have to think turnovers will play a significant role - if Lemon starts throwing picks, this could get ugly.
Calgary 30, Toronto 19
Hamilton (-3) @ Winnipeg (+3)
Hamilton is probably superior, but Winnipeg will be tough at home, and Buck Pierce isn't hurt. Yet. Pierce should give Winnipeg a puncher's chance, and as talented as the TiCats look, they still have the whiff of mistake-prone about them. The Bombers know this is the kind of game they need to win to have any shot at the playoffs this year - but I just think the Tiger-Cats are better across the board.
Hamilton 24, Winnipeg 16
BC (+4) @ Edmonton (-4)
As close to a pick'em as you'll get, despite the line. These teams seem evenly matched; the Lions' d will have its hands full with Ricky Ray, Kelly Campbell, and Arkee Whitlock - but I think the game will come down almost entirely on how Casey Printers performs. If he's brilliant, the Lions might win in a walk. If he's inconsistent and makes a few mistakes - and that's a safer bet - the Eskimos should be able to take advantage.
Edmonton 40, BC 33
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
CFL West Preview
West Division
1- Saskatchewan Roughriders
Predicted Record: 13-5
One has to wonder how they will react.
After suffering one of the most devastating losses in history - blowing a huge halftime lead, only to seemingly win on the last play, but taking a stupid penalty on losing on the do-over - the Riders will either be motivated or crushed. It's hard to imagine any middle ground.
Unfortunately for the West, I have to believe they'll be motivated. This is, simply, the league's best and most balanced attack. There are precious few elite players, but absolutely zero weaknesses, with plenty of depth and consistency, and skill at every position. It's a case of having a team full of 8s, but no 10s or 4s. The passing game is solid and reliable, as Darian Durant has emerged into, perhaps, the next great CFL quarterback. He isn't flashy - casual fans would be forgiven for picking him last among his divisional rivals - but delivers when it matters and doesn't make many mistakes. His receiving corps has excellent medium (Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg) and deep threats (Weston Dressler, Prechae Rodriguez.) The running game is in excellent hands with Wes Cates.
The defence suffered some offseason losses, most significantly on the defensive line. While the Riders have filled the gaps as well as possible, there's almost no way it will be as effective. It's still a solid unit, but Saskatchewan may have to outgun a few opponents.
With their offence, though, that shouldn't be a problem.
2- Edmonton Eskimos
Predicted Record: 11-7
Perhaps the most difficult team to get a solid read on, Edmonton has fielded similar teams for several years now: great passing game, weak or no running game, and an unreliable defence. Ricky Ray consistently puts up great numbers moving the Eskimos across the field, but that has somehow not translated into points. Is he overrated? A sizable contingent in Edmonton seem to think so, advocating for solid backup Jason Maas.
Ray's not the problem and never has been. Under Danny Maciocia, the Esks were content with a dink-dunk passing attack, which never resulted in two-and-outs, but equally failed to deliver touchdowns; it wasn't uncommon for Ray to throw for 350 yards and team only score 20 points.
Last season, that started to change. The team stuck with running back Arkee Whitlock despite a truly horrifying bout of dropsies (he lost at least one game on his own), a risky but ultimately wise investment. Whitlock single-handedly gave Edmonton another dimension on the attack, making them far more difficult to defend.
The receiving corps is decent, especially Fred Stamps and Kelly Campbell. Again, it suffers by comparison to the units in the West - it's almost certainly the weakest, without actually being a weakness.
The defence is another question mark, with more than half of last year's squad replaced. Most observers think it will take at least a year to gel, but I (sadly) liked what Maciocia did - especially Javier Glatt and Chris Thompson, from BC and Hamilton, respectively.
Edmonton is the Winnipeg of the West. Could be formidable. Could be very, very bad.
3- Calgary Stampeders
Predicted Record: 9-9
My boys! It's tough to see how the Stamps will be as good as last year's solid (if inconsistent) team. No one in the CFL suffered more significant losses, from 60% of the offensive line (all Canadians), the best kicker in the league, and offensive coordinator George Cortez. Add to that a suspect pass defence and the level of competition in the west, and things actually look kinda grim.
Now then. That's the bad news. The good news is, this is still a very good team that should be able to compete with anybody. The offence is blessed with weapons, from Ken-Yon Rambo and Nik Lewis at receiver, the best big-play quarterback in the league in Henry Burris, and future Hall of Fame running back Joffrey Reynolds. If the makeshift line can make room for Reynolds and give Burris time, the Stampeders have as good an offence as anyone. That's a big if, though.
The defence is a worry. The Stamps have been unable to find consistent help at defensive halfback for years now, and don't look as though they've solved the problem yet. The defensive line is wildly inconsistent; sometimes dominant, sometimes swiss cheese. The linebackers are solid.
Special teams - and especially the kicking game - have been a strength in Calgary for years. They may still be, as the team thinks highly of rookie kicker Rob Maver. But it's almost impossible he'll be as reliable or clutch as Sandro DeAngelis.
This team is too talented to flame out, but probably doesn't have the horses (no pun intended) to win the division.
4- BC Lions
Predicted Record: 6-12
There's a lot of buzz in Vancouver this year. Popular quarterback Casey Printers has returned from exile, and the team is playing outdoors for the first time in decades.
Printers is a worry. A huge success in his last stint in BC, he's reeked of failure ever since, from Kansas City to Hamilton, even to a 1-4 stretch late last season. He's as talented as any quarterback in the league who's ever played, but seems to have trouble putting it all together. He also has a maddening tendency to do everything himself, like a young Henry Burris.
In the CFL, it's hard to overcome spotty quarterback play - especially in this division. The margin of error is razor-thin. The Lions have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball - far too much to be written off. If Printers rekindles his magic with a full training camp under Wally Buono, this team could threaten. But that doesn't seem to be his career arc at the moment.
1- Saskatchewan Roughriders
Predicted Record: 13-5
One has to wonder how they will react.
After suffering one of the most devastating losses in history - blowing a huge halftime lead, only to seemingly win on the last play, but taking a stupid penalty on losing on the do-over - the Riders will either be motivated or crushed. It's hard to imagine any middle ground.
Unfortunately for the West, I have to believe they'll be motivated. This is, simply, the league's best and most balanced attack. There are precious few elite players, but absolutely zero weaknesses, with plenty of depth and consistency, and skill at every position. It's a case of having a team full of 8s, but no 10s or 4s. The passing game is solid and reliable, as Darian Durant has emerged into, perhaps, the next great CFL quarterback. He isn't flashy - casual fans would be forgiven for picking him last among his divisional rivals - but delivers when it matters and doesn't make many mistakes. His receiving corps has excellent medium (Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg) and deep threats (Weston Dressler, Prechae Rodriguez.) The running game is in excellent hands with Wes Cates.
The defence suffered some offseason losses, most significantly on the defensive line. While the Riders have filled the gaps as well as possible, there's almost no way it will be as effective. It's still a solid unit, but Saskatchewan may have to outgun a few opponents.
With their offence, though, that shouldn't be a problem.
2- Edmonton Eskimos
Predicted Record: 11-7
Perhaps the most difficult team to get a solid read on, Edmonton has fielded similar teams for several years now: great passing game, weak or no running game, and an unreliable defence. Ricky Ray consistently puts up great numbers moving the Eskimos across the field, but that has somehow not translated into points. Is he overrated? A sizable contingent in Edmonton seem to think so, advocating for solid backup Jason Maas.
Ray's not the problem and never has been. Under Danny Maciocia, the Esks were content with a dink-dunk passing attack, which never resulted in two-and-outs, but equally failed to deliver touchdowns; it wasn't uncommon for Ray to throw for 350 yards and team only score 20 points.
Last season, that started to change. The team stuck with running back Arkee Whitlock despite a truly horrifying bout of dropsies (he lost at least one game on his own), a risky but ultimately wise investment. Whitlock single-handedly gave Edmonton another dimension on the attack, making them far more difficult to defend.
The receiving corps is decent, especially Fred Stamps and Kelly Campbell. Again, it suffers by comparison to the units in the West - it's almost certainly the weakest, without actually being a weakness.
The defence is another question mark, with more than half of last year's squad replaced. Most observers think it will take at least a year to gel, but I (sadly) liked what Maciocia did - especially Javier Glatt and Chris Thompson, from BC and Hamilton, respectively.
Edmonton is the Winnipeg of the West. Could be formidable. Could be very, very bad.
3- Calgary Stampeders
Predicted Record: 9-9
My boys! It's tough to see how the Stamps will be as good as last year's solid (if inconsistent) team. No one in the CFL suffered more significant losses, from 60% of the offensive line (all Canadians), the best kicker in the league, and offensive coordinator George Cortez. Add to that a suspect pass defence and the level of competition in the west, and things actually look kinda grim.
Now then. That's the bad news. The good news is, this is still a very good team that should be able to compete with anybody. The offence is blessed with weapons, from Ken-Yon Rambo and Nik Lewis at receiver, the best big-play quarterback in the league in Henry Burris, and future Hall of Fame running back Joffrey Reynolds. If the makeshift line can make room for Reynolds and give Burris time, the Stampeders have as good an offence as anyone. That's a big if, though.
The defence is a worry. The Stamps have been unable to find consistent help at defensive halfback for years now, and don't look as though they've solved the problem yet. The defensive line is wildly inconsistent; sometimes dominant, sometimes swiss cheese. The linebackers are solid.
Special teams - and especially the kicking game - have been a strength in Calgary for years. They may still be, as the team thinks highly of rookie kicker Rob Maver. But it's almost impossible he'll be as reliable or clutch as Sandro DeAngelis.
This team is too talented to flame out, but probably doesn't have the horses (no pun intended) to win the division.
4- BC Lions
Predicted Record: 6-12
There's a lot of buzz in Vancouver this year. Popular quarterback Casey Printers has returned from exile, and the team is playing outdoors for the first time in decades.
Printers is a worry. A huge success in his last stint in BC, he's reeked of failure ever since, from Kansas City to Hamilton, even to a 1-4 stretch late last season. He's as talented as any quarterback in the league who's ever played, but seems to have trouble putting it all together. He also has a maddening tendency to do everything himself, like a young Henry Burris.
In the CFL, it's hard to overcome spotty quarterback play - especially in this division. The margin of error is razor-thin. The Lions have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball - far too much to be written off. If Printers rekindles his magic with a full training camp under Wally Buono, this team could threaten. But that doesn't seem to be his career arc at the moment.
CFL East Preview
1- Montreal Alouettes
Predicted Record: 11-7
Since about 2005, each Montreal Alouettes season preview has ended "...but eventually, Calvillo, Cahoon, and crew will start to slow down." It hasn't happened.
The Alouettes have a lot going for them; they're arguably the league's best-run franchise, and have happily feasted on weaklings in the East. They deny it, but this has cost them in championships; last year aside, they simply haven't been able to find the next gear when it counts, because it's seldom necessary.
The Als return the vast majority of their key players from last year's championship team, with Centre Bryan Chiu the lone exception. Barring injury or freakish bad luck, there's no reason to assume Montreal's hegemony over the east won't last another season. Hamilton may push them - certainly more than last year's five-game cushion - but top to bottom, it's hard to see any weaknesses on this team.
2- Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Predicted Record: 10-8
This year's sexy pick, the Tiger-Cats have a lethal combination: first, a reasonably stout defence, including the league's most underrated linebacking corps. Second, an balanced offence with a lot of weapons, not least a dominant ground game and big-play receivers. Third, they've added the best kicker in league history in Sandro DeAngelis, worth as many as two victories on his own.
One problem: they're still not quite sure who their quarterback is. They'd like it to be Quinton Porter, but he's been conclusively outplayed by journeyman Kevin Glenn. Glenn is a classic 'tweener: a second-tier starter, or a top-flite backup. Still, with this offence, Glenn can probably do enough damage to worry the Montreals and Saskatchewans of the world.
3- Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Predicted Record: 6-12
One thing's for sure: the press conferences will be significantly less entertaining. What is it with Winnipeg and clueless but soundbite-friendly coaches? Once every 15 years, they hire a Jeff Reinebold or Mike Kelly, and fall to pieces while leading the league in "he said WHATs"
The Bombers have the pieces of a decent team, but suffered through the worst quarterbacking in the league last year - Toronto was so bad it didn't even count. When retread Michael Bishop was even average, they were in almost every game, but "average" seemed to be Bishop's ceiling. (Which was, in turn, a lot better than presumptive starter Stefan LeFors, whowas deported retired.)
This year's QB situation is a classic gamble: a much higher ceiling, but much greater risk. Buck Pierce will enter the season behind centre, but is a documented concussion risk and almost certainly won't survive all 18 games. Behind him are Steven Jyles, an intriguing if untested option, and a field of green.
There probably isn't a team with a greater gulf between best- and worst-case scenarios. The defence and special teams are adequate, but won't win any games on their own. If Pierce can stay healthy, he's an accurate, gutsy leader, capable of surprising even the league's heavyweights. If he misses a lot of time - and those are at least even odds - this team may struggle to win more than a handful of games.
4- Toronto Argonauts
Predicted Record: 5-13
The CFL's only real trouble spot - sadly both off and on the field - the Argos will almost certainly be better than last year. It would be genuinely difficult for professional players to be worse.
Let's start with the positives: the defence, as usual in Toronto, is stout. The defensive line usually gets ignored (occupational hazard on a horrid team) but is actually among the league's better units. The linebackers and secondary are better than average.
That's about it.
The offence underwent an almost-total overhaul. Again, it would be hard to match last year's incompetence, but there is precious little experience anywhere. The team did well to add slotback Jeremaine Copeland from Calgary (which looks like a steal with P.K. Sam hurt yet again), both for a reliable target and locker room sensei. With Calgary's receivers dropping like flies, Copeland dragged his team almost single-handedly to several key divisional wins - he may have been superceded by Nik Lewis and Ken-Yon Rambo, but he's still an elite player.
Who's going to get him the ball? Toronto's three quarterbacks have exactly zero CFL experience, aside from backup Dalton Bell's brief apprenticeship in Regina. Bell was the best performer in preseason, but the starting assignment still went to NFL veteran Cleo Lemon. He'll be watched very carefully by new coach Jim Barker, but you have to imagine there will be a fairly long leash.
The club also lost its top runner in Jamal Richardson to BC, clearing space for another rookie in Cory Boyd. He's looked promising in preseason.
As better writers than I have put it, the Argos could be significantly better than last year while winning fewer games. Barring a complete collapse by Winnipeg and at least one Western team, the playoffs seem out of reach for now.
Predicted Record: 11-7
Since about 2005, each Montreal Alouettes season preview has ended "...but eventually, Calvillo, Cahoon, and crew will start to slow down." It hasn't happened.
The Alouettes have a lot going for them; they're arguably the league's best-run franchise, and have happily feasted on weaklings in the East. They deny it, but this has cost them in championships; last year aside, they simply haven't been able to find the next gear when it counts, because it's seldom necessary.
The Als return the vast majority of their key players from last year's championship team, with Centre Bryan Chiu the lone exception. Barring injury or freakish bad luck, there's no reason to assume Montreal's hegemony over the east won't last another season. Hamilton may push them - certainly more than last year's five-game cushion - but top to bottom, it's hard to see any weaknesses on this team.
2- Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Predicted Record: 10-8
This year's sexy pick, the Tiger-Cats have a lethal combination: first, a reasonably stout defence, including the league's most underrated linebacking corps. Second, an balanced offence with a lot of weapons, not least a dominant ground game and big-play receivers. Third, they've added the best kicker in league history in Sandro DeAngelis, worth as many as two victories on his own.
One problem: they're still not quite sure who their quarterback is. They'd like it to be Quinton Porter, but he's been conclusively outplayed by journeyman Kevin Glenn. Glenn is a classic 'tweener: a second-tier starter, or a top-flite backup. Still, with this offence, Glenn can probably do enough damage to worry the Montreals and Saskatchewans of the world.
3- Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Predicted Record: 6-12
One thing's for sure: the press conferences will be significantly less entertaining. What is it with Winnipeg and clueless but soundbite-friendly coaches? Once every 15 years, they hire a Jeff Reinebold or Mike Kelly, and fall to pieces while leading the league in "he said WHATs"
The Bombers have the pieces of a decent team, but suffered through the worst quarterbacking in the league last year - Toronto was so bad it didn't even count. When retread Michael Bishop was even average, they were in almost every game, but "average" seemed to be Bishop's ceiling. (Which was, in turn, a lot better than presumptive starter Stefan LeFors, who
This year's QB situation is a classic gamble: a much higher ceiling, but much greater risk. Buck Pierce will enter the season behind centre, but is a documented concussion risk and almost certainly won't survive all 18 games. Behind him are Steven Jyles, an intriguing if untested option, and a field of green.
There probably isn't a team with a greater gulf between best- and worst-case scenarios. The defence and special teams are adequate, but won't win any games on their own. If Pierce can stay healthy, he's an accurate, gutsy leader, capable of surprising even the league's heavyweights. If he misses a lot of time - and those are at least even odds - this team may struggle to win more than a handful of games.
4- Toronto Argonauts
Predicted Record: 5-13
The CFL's only real trouble spot - sadly both off and on the field - the Argos will almost certainly be better than last year. It would be genuinely difficult for professional players to be worse.
Let's start with the positives: the defence, as usual in Toronto, is stout. The defensive line usually gets ignored (occupational hazard on a horrid team) but is actually among the league's better units. The linebackers and secondary are better than average.
That's about it.
The offence underwent an almost-total overhaul. Again, it would be hard to match last year's incompetence, but there is precious little experience anywhere. The team did well to add slotback Jeremaine Copeland from Calgary (which looks like a steal with P.K. Sam hurt yet again), both for a reliable target and locker room sensei. With Calgary's receivers dropping like flies, Copeland dragged his team almost single-handedly to several key divisional wins - he may have been superceded by Nik Lewis and Ken-Yon Rambo, but he's still an elite player.
Who's going to get him the ball? Toronto's three quarterbacks have exactly zero CFL experience, aside from backup Dalton Bell's brief apprenticeship in Regina. Bell was the best performer in preseason, but the starting assignment still went to NFL veteran Cleo Lemon. He'll be watched very carefully by new coach Jim Barker, but you have to imagine there will be a fairly long leash.
The club also lost its top runner in Jamal Richardson to BC, clearing space for another rookie in Cory Boyd. He's looked promising in preseason.
As better writers than I have put it, the Argos could be significantly better than last year while winning fewer games. Barring a complete collapse by Winnipeg and at least one Western team, the playoffs seem out of reach for now.
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