As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark:
Last week 2-2, 17-9 on the year.
BC 1-5 @ Saskatchewan 4-2 (Saskatchewan favoured by 8.5)
This has the feel (and line) of a blowout, but the more you look, the more you can talk yourself into a decent game. Consider:
- Saskatchewan's defence is the worst in the league, and seems to be regressing as the season continues.
- BC is finally playing veteran Jarious Jackson at quarterback. Jackson isn't elite by any means, but he should generate considerably more offence than Travis Lulay's 150 yards or so. He also stands a much better chance of handling the crowd in Regina. The Riders are susceptible to a strong ground game, and Jamal Robertson is more than capable.
- Saskatchewan has been moving the ball well (if streaky), but BC's defence is surprisingly solid. They kept the Lions in last week's game long after the Stampeders should've put them away.
Do I think the Lions will actually win? As hard as it is to imagine Wally Buono coaching a 1-6 team, I still can't quite talk myself into the upset pick. But I hummed and hawed over it long enough that, should BC find a way to win, I'll kick myself extra hard. Still, I think the Riders will find this one uncomfortably close.
Saskatchewan 23, BC 21
Hamilton 2-4 @ Winnipeg 2-4 (Winnipeg favoured by 3.5)
I could swear this game already happened. Meeting for the 15th time in 17 weeks (not really), the Ticats and Bombers know each other well. But they seem to be heading in opposite directions.
Winnipeg started the year strong, with Buck Pierce energizing the team (and fanbase) with his exciting, if risky play. He got hurt. Again. Backup Steven Jyles isn't as bad as some seem to think, but he's not good enough to carry the team, and does seem to suffer through bouts of prolonged accuracy issues. Similarly, the defence came out of week one like gangbusters, but seems to be on a gradual decline, releasing Ike Charlton last week even as he led the team in tackles. Fed up with inconsistency, this week the team ditched kicker Alexis Serna, and plan to use former backup punter Louie Sakoda. Yikes.
Hamilton started slow, but despite a very suspect offensive line, have picked things up. Kevin Glenn is playing the best football of his career right now (boy, he'd look good in a Bombers uniform...whoops) and the defence is rounding into form.
I don't think the Hamilton stadium imbroglio will affect or distract the team - yet. Emphasis on "yet."
Home field has been important in this rivalry, but I just think Hamilton is better at this moment in time.
Hamilton 30, Winnipeg 18
Montreal 5-1 @ Toronto 4-2 (Montreal favoured by 7.5)
Hard to believe these teams are a combined 9-3 on the year, with one of those losses coming head-to-head. That loss, a 41-10 Alouettes blowout win, was as decisive as CFL games get. Can much change in two weeks?
The Argos have been relying on defence and the league's top rushing game to keep games close, but the Alouettes managed to shut Cory Boyd down almost completely. Cleo Lemon has been improving, but he can expect the Als to try exactly what worked so well two weeks ago - he's going to have to generate a lot of yardage and points.
He's getting there. He's not there yet.
Montreal 27, Toronto 16
Edmonton 1-5 @ Calgary 5-1 (Calgary favoured by 9)
I can't even describe how happy this game makes me. I just don't see how the Stamps lose this game.
Calgary 33, Edmonton 18
(I said I can't describe it.)
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Friday, August 6, 2010
Week Six Picks
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark:
Saskatchewan (+6.5) @ Montreal (-6.5)
The Grey Cup rematch, and main event for this week. After being hammered in Calgary, the Riders looked strangely vulnerable on defence against Hamilton. They were simply unable to stop or even cover Arland Bruce, which I'm sure Marc Trestman and OC Scott Milanovich took keen notice of. If there's a weakness, the Als definitely have the horses to exploit it.
On the other side, the Riders' attack continues to hum like a well-oiled machine. This is arguably the deepest and most consistent receiving corps in the league, and tackling Darian Durant is like wrestling a greased pig. (So I hear, anyway. Ahem.)
The Als are rightly pissed about blowing their week one meeting ("a slap in the face") but it wasn't bad luck - they couldn't finish. Somehow, I see that happening again. Saskatchewan in another come from behind thriller.
Saskatchewan 40, Montreal 37
Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (-6.5)
Interesting matchup of mirror-image teams. Toronto has a good record but hasn't impressed, and aside from one blowout and three awful fourth quarters, Edmonton has looked dangerous at times. This game will say a lot about both teams - is Toronto's record smoke and mirrors? Has Edmonton just been unlucky?
I think there's a bit of truth to both. Toronto is certainly a limited team - their passing game is woeful - but their defence and running game have kept them afloat. Cory Boyd isn't the league's leading rusher for nothing, and the special teams have delivered when it matters. I still can't decide if their passing game suffers from inexperienced receivers, subpar quarterback play, or bad playcalling. Again, there's probably an element of all three.
Edmonton is a strange case. Their best players match up with anyone in the league, but where they're weak, they're weak. Despite the fanbase, Ricky Ray isn't the problem - though he hasn't been great. The offensive line has been simply horrible, and subbing in Jason Maas or Jared Zabransky won't change that.
If Edmonton gets ahead, and they have the weapons, it will be difficult for Toronto to fight back. That's exactly what happened last week in Montreal; once they have to go to the air exclusively, things snowball on them. But in a low-scoring field position slugfest, the Argos can beat anybody.
Somehow, I just see Edmonton getting a key bounce or two to win. Nothing would surprise me, though.
Edmonton 19, Toronto 15
Winnipeg (+3) @ Hamilton (-3)
Again? These teams probably know each other very well by this point, facing off for the third time this season. The teams split one-sided home wins, which is probably the only reason Hamilton are slight favourites here.
Winnipeg is a classic CFL 'tweener team. Flashy and fun (especially with Buck Pierce), demonstrably better than the bottom-feeders, but a clear notch or two behind the top dogs. It looks like Steven Jyles will play ahead of Pierce again, and while he's a decent backup, this probably means at least 7 fewer points for the Bombers. In a surprising move, the team cut leading tackler Ike Charlton this week, which you'd think will weaken the defence, at least in the short term. I'm not nearly as sold on Joe Lobendahn and safety Ian Logan as some, and think this team can be picked apart by a good offence.
But do the TiCats have one? Hamilton was this year's chique pick team, which is almost always the kiss of death. Receiver Arland Bruce has been phenomenal, Kevin Glenn has been competent, but De'Andra Cobb has been hugely disappointing, and the team lacks balance. The defence and special teams have also been uneven, especially Sandro DeAngelis, who is about two more bad games from a release.
The very definition of a pick'em. Let's say Hamilton, if only because of home field.
Hamilton 28, Winnipeg 26
Calgary (-3.5) @ BC (+3.5)BC is descending into a mess. The offseason veteran exodus and resulting youth movement has been painful, and as Buono said last week, the veterans he kept haven't exactly picked up the slack. Casey Printers has been uneven to say the least, and while Travis Lulay has shown flashes, he's not a legitimate starter yet. Offensive coordinator Jacques Chapdelaine seems to be the focal pint for criticism, but only Edmonton has been more error-prone so far.
By contrast, the Stampeders look to be hitting their stride, throttling the Riders and toughing out a win in Winnipeg. Nik Lewis has been next to unstoppable in the slot, and if Ken-Yon Rambo can give Burris a reliable deep threat to pair with Romby Bryant, watch out. The offensive line got stronger with Dmitri Tsoumpas coming back form the NFL, and the defence - especially Malik Jackson and the dynamic linebacking corps - has delivered.
BC has officially reached the desperation stage, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But they bear all the unfortunate trappings of a team in disarray, and they're hosting a very strong and improving Stamps team.
Calgary 31, BC 20
Saskatchewan (+6.5) @ Montreal (-6.5)
The Grey Cup rematch, and main event for this week. After being hammered in Calgary, the Riders looked strangely vulnerable on defence against Hamilton. They were simply unable to stop or even cover Arland Bruce, which I'm sure Marc Trestman and OC Scott Milanovich took keen notice of. If there's a weakness, the Als definitely have the horses to exploit it.
On the other side, the Riders' attack continues to hum like a well-oiled machine. This is arguably the deepest and most consistent receiving corps in the league, and tackling Darian Durant is like wrestling a greased pig. (So I hear, anyway. Ahem.)
The Als are rightly pissed about blowing their week one meeting ("a slap in the face") but it wasn't bad luck - they couldn't finish. Somehow, I see that happening again. Saskatchewan in another come from behind thriller.
Saskatchewan 40, Montreal 37
Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (-6.5)
Interesting matchup of mirror-image teams. Toronto has a good record but hasn't impressed, and aside from one blowout and three awful fourth quarters, Edmonton has looked dangerous at times. This game will say a lot about both teams - is Toronto's record smoke and mirrors? Has Edmonton just been unlucky?
I think there's a bit of truth to both. Toronto is certainly a limited team - their passing game is woeful - but their defence and running game have kept them afloat. Cory Boyd isn't the league's leading rusher for nothing, and the special teams have delivered when it matters. I still can't decide if their passing game suffers from inexperienced receivers, subpar quarterback play, or bad playcalling. Again, there's probably an element of all three.
Edmonton is a strange case. Their best players match up with anyone in the league, but where they're weak, they're weak. Despite the fanbase, Ricky Ray isn't the problem - though he hasn't been great. The offensive line has been simply horrible, and subbing in Jason Maas or Jared Zabransky won't change that.
If Edmonton gets ahead, and they have the weapons, it will be difficult for Toronto to fight back. That's exactly what happened last week in Montreal; once they have to go to the air exclusively, things snowball on them. But in a low-scoring field position slugfest, the Argos can beat anybody.
Somehow, I just see Edmonton getting a key bounce or two to win. Nothing would surprise me, though.
Edmonton 19, Toronto 15
Winnipeg (+3) @ Hamilton (-3)
Again? These teams probably know each other very well by this point, facing off for the third time this season. The teams split one-sided home wins, which is probably the only reason Hamilton are slight favourites here.
Winnipeg is a classic CFL 'tweener team. Flashy and fun (especially with Buck Pierce), demonstrably better than the bottom-feeders, but a clear notch or two behind the top dogs. It looks like Steven Jyles will play ahead of Pierce again, and while he's a decent backup, this probably means at least 7 fewer points for the Bombers. In a surprising move, the team cut leading tackler Ike Charlton this week, which you'd think will weaken the defence, at least in the short term. I'm not nearly as sold on Joe Lobendahn and safety Ian Logan as some, and think this team can be picked apart by a good offence.
But do the TiCats have one? Hamilton was this year's chique pick team, which is almost always the kiss of death. Receiver Arland Bruce has been phenomenal, Kevin Glenn has been competent, but De'Andra Cobb has been hugely disappointing, and the team lacks balance. The defence and special teams have also been uneven, especially Sandro DeAngelis, who is about two more bad games from a release.
The very definition of a pick'em. Let's say Hamilton, if only because of home field.
Hamilton 28, Winnipeg 26
Calgary (-3.5) @ BC (+3.5)BC is descending into a mess. The offseason veteran exodus and resulting youth movement has been painful, and as Buono said last week, the veterans he kept haven't exactly picked up the slack. Casey Printers has been uneven to say the least, and while Travis Lulay has shown flashes, he's not a legitimate starter yet. Offensive coordinator Jacques Chapdelaine seems to be the focal pint for criticism, but only Edmonton has been more error-prone so far.
By contrast, the Stampeders look to be hitting their stride, throttling the Riders and toughing out a win in Winnipeg. Nik Lewis has been next to unstoppable in the slot, and if Ken-Yon Rambo can give Burris a reliable deep threat to pair with Romby Bryant, watch out. The offensive line got stronger with Dmitri Tsoumpas coming back form the NFL, and the defence - especially Malik Jackson and the dynamic linebacking corps - has delivered.
BC has officially reached the desperation stage, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But they bear all the unfortunate trappings of a team in disarray, and they're hosting a very strong and improving Stamps team.
Calgary 31, BC 20
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