As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark:
Last week 2-2, 17-9 on the year.
BC 1-5 @ Saskatchewan 4-2 (Saskatchewan favoured by 8.5)
This has the feel (and line) of a blowout, but the more you look, the more you can talk yourself into a decent game. Consider:
- Saskatchewan's defence is the worst in the league, and seems to be regressing as the season continues.
- BC is finally playing veteran Jarious Jackson at quarterback. Jackson isn't elite by any means, but he should generate considerably more offence than Travis Lulay's 150 yards or so. He also stands a much better chance of handling the crowd in Regina. The Riders are susceptible to a strong ground game, and Jamal Robertson is more than capable.
- Saskatchewan has been moving the ball well (if streaky), but BC's defence is surprisingly solid. They kept the Lions in last week's game long after the Stampeders should've put them away.
Do I think the Lions will actually win? As hard as it is to imagine Wally Buono coaching a 1-6 team, I still can't quite talk myself into the upset pick. But I hummed and hawed over it long enough that, should BC find a way to win, I'll kick myself extra hard. Still, I think the Riders will find this one uncomfortably close.
Saskatchewan 23, BC 21
Hamilton 2-4 @ Winnipeg 2-4 (Winnipeg favoured by 3.5)
I could swear this game already happened. Meeting for the 15th time in 17 weeks (not really), the Ticats and Bombers know each other well. But they seem to be heading in opposite directions.
Winnipeg started the year strong, with Buck Pierce energizing the team (and fanbase) with his exciting, if risky play. He got hurt. Again. Backup Steven Jyles isn't as bad as some seem to think, but he's not good enough to carry the team, and does seem to suffer through bouts of prolonged accuracy issues. Similarly, the defence came out of week one like gangbusters, but seems to be on a gradual decline, releasing Ike Charlton last week even as he led the team in tackles. Fed up with inconsistency, this week the team ditched kicker Alexis Serna, and plan to use former backup punter Louie Sakoda. Yikes.
Hamilton started slow, but despite a very suspect offensive line, have picked things up. Kevin Glenn is playing the best football of his career right now (boy, he'd look good in a Bombers uniform...whoops) and the defence is rounding into form.
I don't think the Hamilton stadium imbroglio will affect or distract the team - yet. Emphasis on "yet."
Home field has been important in this rivalry, but I just think Hamilton is better at this moment in time.
Hamilton 30, Winnipeg 18
Montreal 5-1 @ Toronto 4-2 (Montreal favoured by 7.5)
Hard to believe these teams are a combined 9-3 on the year, with one of those losses coming head-to-head. That loss, a 41-10 Alouettes blowout win, was as decisive as CFL games get. Can much change in two weeks?
The Argos have been relying on defence and the league's top rushing game to keep games close, but the Alouettes managed to shut Cory Boyd down almost completely. Cleo Lemon has been improving, but he can expect the Als to try exactly what worked so well two weeks ago - he's going to have to generate a lot of yardage and points.
He's getting there. He's not there yet.
Montreal 27, Toronto 16
Edmonton 1-5 @ Calgary 5-1 (Calgary favoured by 9)
I can't even describe how happy this game makes me. I just don't see how the Stamps lose this game.
Calgary 33, Edmonton 18
(I said I can't describe it.)
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Friday, August 6, 2010
Week Six Picks
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark:
Saskatchewan (+6.5) @ Montreal (-6.5)
The Grey Cup rematch, and main event for this week. After being hammered in Calgary, the Riders looked strangely vulnerable on defence against Hamilton. They were simply unable to stop or even cover Arland Bruce, which I'm sure Marc Trestman and OC Scott Milanovich took keen notice of. If there's a weakness, the Als definitely have the horses to exploit it.
On the other side, the Riders' attack continues to hum like a well-oiled machine. This is arguably the deepest and most consistent receiving corps in the league, and tackling Darian Durant is like wrestling a greased pig. (So I hear, anyway. Ahem.)
The Als are rightly pissed about blowing their week one meeting ("a slap in the face") but it wasn't bad luck - they couldn't finish. Somehow, I see that happening again. Saskatchewan in another come from behind thriller.
Saskatchewan 40, Montreal 37
Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (-6.5)
Interesting matchup of mirror-image teams. Toronto has a good record but hasn't impressed, and aside from one blowout and three awful fourth quarters, Edmonton has looked dangerous at times. This game will say a lot about both teams - is Toronto's record smoke and mirrors? Has Edmonton just been unlucky?
I think there's a bit of truth to both. Toronto is certainly a limited team - their passing game is woeful - but their defence and running game have kept them afloat. Cory Boyd isn't the league's leading rusher for nothing, and the special teams have delivered when it matters. I still can't decide if their passing game suffers from inexperienced receivers, subpar quarterback play, or bad playcalling. Again, there's probably an element of all three.
Edmonton is a strange case. Their best players match up with anyone in the league, but where they're weak, they're weak. Despite the fanbase, Ricky Ray isn't the problem - though he hasn't been great. The offensive line has been simply horrible, and subbing in Jason Maas or Jared Zabransky won't change that.
If Edmonton gets ahead, and they have the weapons, it will be difficult for Toronto to fight back. That's exactly what happened last week in Montreal; once they have to go to the air exclusively, things snowball on them. But in a low-scoring field position slugfest, the Argos can beat anybody.
Somehow, I just see Edmonton getting a key bounce or two to win. Nothing would surprise me, though.
Edmonton 19, Toronto 15
Winnipeg (+3) @ Hamilton (-3)
Again? These teams probably know each other very well by this point, facing off for the third time this season. The teams split one-sided home wins, which is probably the only reason Hamilton are slight favourites here.
Winnipeg is a classic CFL 'tweener team. Flashy and fun (especially with Buck Pierce), demonstrably better than the bottom-feeders, but a clear notch or two behind the top dogs. It looks like Steven Jyles will play ahead of Pierce again, and while he's a decent backup, this probably means at least 7 fewer points for the Bombers. In a surprising move, the team cut leading tackler Ike Charlton this week, which you'd think will weaken the defence, at least in the short term. I'm not nearly as sold on Joe Lobendahn and safety Ian Logan as some, and think this team can be picked apart by a good offence.
But do the TiCats have one? Hamilton was this year's chique pick team, which is almost always the kiss of death. Receiver Arland Bruce has been phenomenal, Kevin Glenn has been competent, but De'Andra Cobb has been hugely disappointing, and the team lacks balance. The defence and special teams have also been uneven, especially Sandro DeAngelis, who is about two more bad games from a release.
The very definition of a pick'em. Let's say Hamilton, if only because of home field.
Hamilton 28, Winnipeg 26
Calgary (-3.5) @ BC (+3.5)BC is descending into a mess. The offseason veteran exodus and resulting youth movement has been painful, and as Buono said last week, the veterans he kept haven't exactly picked up the slack. Casey Printers has been uneven to say the least, and while Travis Lulay has shown flashes, he's not a legitimate starter yet. Offensive coordinator Jacques Chapdelaine seems to be the focal pint for criticism, but only Edmonton has been more error-prone so far.
By contrast, the Stampeders look to be hitting their stride, throttling the Riders and toughing out a win in Winnipeg. Nik Lewis has been next to unstoppable in the slot, and if Ken-Yon Rambo can give Burris a reliable deep threat to pair with Romby Bryant, watch out. The offensive line got stronger with Dmitri Tsoumpas coming back form the NFL, and the defence - especially Malik Jackson and the dynamic linebacking corps - has delivered.
BC has officially reached the desperation stage, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But they bear all the unfortunate trappings of a team in disarray, and they're hosting a very strong and improving Stamps team.
Calgary 31, BC 20
Saskatchewan (+6.5) @ Montreal (-6.5)
The Grey Cup rematch, and main event for this week. After being hammered in Calgary, the Riders looked strangely vulnerable on defence against Hamilton. They were simply unable to stop or even cover Arland Bruce, which I'm sure Marc Trestman and OC Scott Milanovich took keen notice of. If there's a weakness, the Als definitely have the horses to exploit it.
On the other side, the Riders' attack continues to hum like a well-oiled machine. This is arguably the deepest and most consistent receiving corps in the league, and tackling Darian Durant is like wrestling a greased pig. (So I hear, anyway. Ahem.)
The Als are rightly pissed about blowing their week one meeting ("a slap in the face") but it wasn't bad luck - they couldn't finish. Somehow, I see that happening again. Saskatchewan in another come from behind thriller.
Saskatchewan 40, Montreal 37
Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (-6.5)
Interesting matchup of mirror-image teams. Toronto has a good record but hasn't impressed, and aside from one blowout and three awful fourth quarters, Edmonton has looked dangerous at times. This game will say a lot about both teams - is Toronto's record smoke and mirrors? Has Edmonton just been unlucky?
I think there's a bit of truth to both. Toronto is certainly a limited team - their passing game is woeful - but their defence and running game have kept them afloat. Cory Boyd isn't the league's leading rusher for nothing, and the special teams have delivered when it matters. I still can't decide if their passing game suffers from inexperienced receivers, subpar quarterback play, or bad playcalling. Again, there's probably an element of all three.
Edmonton is a strange case. Their best players match up with anyone in the league, but where they're weak, they're weak. Despite the fanbase, Ricky Ray isn't the problem - though he hasn't been great. The offensive line has been simply horrible, and subbing in Jason Maas or Jared Zabransky won't change that.
If Edmonton gets ahead, and they have the weapons, it will be difficult for Toronto to fight back. That's exactly what happened last week in Montreal; once they have to go to the air exclusively, things snowball on them. But in a low-scoring field position slugfest, the Argos can beat anybody.
Somehow, I just see Edmonton getting a key bounce or two to win. Nothing would surprise me, though.
Edmonton 19, Toronto 15
Winnipeg (+3) @ Hamilton (-3)
Again? These teams probably know each other very well by this point, facing off for the third time this season. The teams split one-sided home wins, which is probably the only reason Hamilton are slight favourites here.
Winnipeg is a classic CFL 'tweener team. Flashy and fun (especially with Buck Pierce), demonstrably better than the bottom-feeders, but a clear notch or two behind the top dogs. It looks like Steven Jyles will play ahead of Pierce again, and while he's a decent backup, this probably means at least 7 fewer points for the Bombers. In a surprising move, the team cut leading tackler Ike Charlton this week, which you'd think will weaken the defence, at least in the short term. I'm not nearly as sold on Joe Lobendahn and safety Ian Logan as some, and think this team can be picked apart by a good offence.
But do the TiCats have one? Hamilton was this year's chique pick team, which is almost always the kiss of death. Receiver Arland Bruce has been phenomenal, Kevin Glenn has been competent, but De'Andra Cobb has been hugely disappointing, and the team lacks balance. The defence and special teams have also been uneven, especially Sandro DeAngelis, who is about two more bad games from a release.
The very definition of a pick'em. Let's say Hamilton, if only because of home field.
Hamilton 28, Winnipeg 26
Calgary (-3.5) @ BC (+3.5)BC is descending into a mess. The offseason veteran exodus and resulting youth movement has been painful, and as Buono said last week, the veterans he kept haven't exactly picked up the slack. Casey Printers has been uneven to say the least, and while Travis Lulay has shown flashes, he's not a legitimate starter yet. Offensive coordinator Jacques Chapdelaine seems to be the focal pint for criticism, but only Edmonton has been more error-prone so far.
By contrast, the Stampeders look to be hitting their stride, throttling the Riders and toughing out a win in Winnipeg. Nik Lewis has been next to unstoppable in the slot, and if Ken-Yon Rambo can give Burris a reliable deep threat to pair with Romby Bryant, watch out. The offensive line got stronger with Dmitri Tsoumpas coming back form the NFL, and the defence - especially Malik Jackson and the dynamic linebacking corps - has delivered.
BC has officially reached the desperation stage, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But they bear all the unfortunate trappings of a team in disarray, and they're hosting a very strong and improving Stamps team.
Calgary 31, BC 20
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Week Four Picks
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Hamilton 1-2 (+9) @ Montreal 2-1 (-9)A deceptive line, to say the least. Montreal has escaped twice by the skin of their teeth. But for some bad luck on the Eskimos' part, they should've lost in Edmonton; and barely beat a wobbly BC team, scoring only 16 points. Montreal's been very good for a very long time, so it's tempting to say it's just rust.
Hamilton, on the other hand, has been improving each week. Granted, they had a long way to go, but they have all cylinders firing now. They have the league's best returner in Marcus Thigpen. Their defence held the Bombers to just 7 points last week. The offence is humming, with Kevin Glenn playing a near-perfect game last week, and De'Andra Cobb finally getting the running game going.
So, this is a tough one. Is Montreal (still) better than Hamilton? Probably. Are they nine points better? Well....we'll see. Debuting their refurbished stadium - in front of 25% more fans than previous capacity - may make the difference here.
Montreal 26, Hamilton 23
BC 1-2 (-3) @ Toronto 2-1 (+3)
How in the world is BC favoured to win this game?
The Lions steamrolled Edmonton in week one, then got pummeled by the Riders and managed just 12 points at home against Montreal. Granted, those two losses were against last year's finalists, but it never seemed as though the Lions were at or near their level.
Casey Printers is hurt, meaning Travis Lulay will start for BC. I still think this is an upgrade - though Buono's best option is still on the bench in Jarious Jackson. Lulay hasn't started a game since 2007 (in another league) but Printers has lost a step since coming back from the NFL. He'll need to be careful against Toronto's feisty and savvy defence, especially LB Kevin Eiben and HB Willie Middlebrooks, who have been all over the field.
Toronto's offence has mostly consisted of Cory Boyd running the ball and Cleo Lemon generating about 175 yards through the air. That's not enough to win every week, but if they don't turn the ball over, it's enough to keep games close. That might be enough against the Lions.
Toronto 20, BC 16
Edmonton 0-3 (+2) @ Winnipeg 1-2 (-2)
The Eskimos are the most formidable 0-3 team in recent memory. In consecutive weeks, they had Montreal and Saskatchewan on the ropes, leading into the fourth quarter. Both times, the wheels fell off and the Eskimos collapsed like a house of cards. A lot of that - especially against Montreal, with two dropped touchdown passes - was bad luck. Every team experiences unusual amounts of good or bad luck every so often, but it does tend to even out.
They're also fortunate to catch Winnipeg without Buck Pierce, out with a knee injury. (You're shocked, I know.) Steven Jyles (a former Eskimo) has been a well-regarded development project for years now, but this will be just his second start. He didn't look bad in relief work last week, but then again, the Bombers only scored seven points. Even at his nadir, Ricky Ray is worth two or three times that.
Bottom line: Edmonton is better than their record. Winnipeg is exactly as good as theirs.
Edmonton 36, Winnipeg 23
Saskatchewan 3-0 (+2) @ Calgary 2-1 (-2)
The one game I find it most difficult to be objective about.
There's only one way to approach this: the Riders owned Calgary last year. Owned. The Stamps mustered one near-perfect game at home, and it earned them a tie. Add this to the green barbarian horde effect at McMahon, and this is an uncomfortable game.
Here's the funny thing: on paper, this actually doesn't seem like a mismatch at all. The Stamps are an above-average team. But their two key weaknesses, offensive line and defensive halfback, are serious ones. The offensive line collapsed last week in Toronto, scaring the Frank back into Hank. The Riders aren't as dominant as last year along the line, but they're still very good - and smart enough to have watched a LOT of tape from last week.
Similarly, the Stamps' lopsided secondary (strong wherever Brandon Browner is, suspect everywhere else) may get eaten alive by Saskatchewan's receiving corps, the best in the CFL.
Sickens me to say it, but this won't end well for the heroes in red.
Saskatchewan 30, Calgary 21
Hamilton 1-2 (+9) @ Montreal 2-1 (-9)A deceptive line, to say the least. Montreal has escaped twice by the skin of their teeth. But for some bad luck on the Eskimos' part, they should've lost in Edmonton; and barely beat a wobbly BC team, scoring only 16 points. Montreal's been very good for a very long time, so it's tempting to say it's just rust.
Hamilton, on the other hand, has been improving each week. Granted, they had a long way to go, but they have all cylinders firing now. They have the league's best returner in Marcus Thigpen. Their defence held the Bombers to just 7 points last week. The offence is humming, with Kevin Glenn playing a near-perfect game last week, and De'Andra Cobb finally getting the running game going.
So, this is a tough one. Is Montreal (still) better than Hamilton? Probably. Are they nine points better? Well....we'll see. Debuting their refurbished stadium - in front of 25% more fans than previous capacity - may make the difference here.
Montreal 26, Hamilton 23
BC 1-2 (-3) @ Toronto 2-1 (+3)
How in the world is BC favoured to win this game?
The Lions steamrolled Edmonton in week one, then got pummeled by the Riders and managed just 12 points at home against Montreal. Granted, those two losses were against last year's finalists, but it never seemed as though the Lions were at or near their level.
Casey Printers is hurt, meaning Travis Lulay will start for BC. I still think this is an upgrade - though Buono's best option is still on the bench in Jarious Jackson. Lulay hasn't started a game since 2007 (in another league) but Printers has lost a step since coming back from the NFL. He'll need to be careful against Toronto's feisty and savvy defence, especially LB Kevin Eiben and HB Willie Middlebrooks, who have been all over the field.
Toronto's offence has mostly consisted of Cory Boyd running the ball and Cleo Lemon generating about 175 yards through the air. That's not enough to win every week, but if they don't turn the ball over, it's enough to keep games close. That might be enough against the Lions.
Toronto 20, BC 16
Edmonton 0-3 (+2) @ Winnipeg 1-2 (-2)
The Eskimos are the most formidable 0-3 team in recent memory. In consecutive weeks, they had Montreal and Saskatchewan on the ropes, leading into the fourth quarter. Both times, the wheels fell off and the Eskimos collapsed like a house of cards. A lot of that - especially against Montreal, with two dropped touchdown passes - was bad luck. Every team experiences unusual amounts of good or bad luck every so often, but it does tend to even out.
They're also fortunate to catch Winnipeg without Buck Pierce, out with a knee injury. (You're shocked, I know.) Steven Jyles (a former Eskimo) has been a well-regarded development project for years now, but this will be just his second start. He didn't look bad in relief work last week, but then again, the Bombers only scored seven points. Even at his nadir, Ricky Ray is worth two or three times that.
Bottom line: Edmonton is better than their record. Winnipeg is exactly as good as theirs.
Edmonton 36, Winnipeg 23
Saskatchewan 3-0 (+2) @ Calgary 2-1 (-2)
The one game I find it most difficult to be objective about.
There's only one way to approach this: the Riders owned Calgary last year. Owned. The Stamps mustered one near-perfect game at home, and it earned them a tie. Add this to the green barbarian horde effect at McMahon, and this is an uncomfortable game.
Here's the funny thing: on paper, this actually doesn't seem like a mismatch at all. The Stamps are an above-average team. But their two key weaknesses, offensive line and defensive halfback, are serious ones. The offensive line collapsed last week in Toronto, scaring the Frank back into Hank. The Riders aren't as dominant as last year along the line, but they're still very good - and smart enough to have watched a LOT of tape from last week.
Similarly, the Stamps' lopsided secondary (strong wherever Brandon Browner is, suspect everywhere else) may get eaten alive by Saskatchewan's receiving corps, the best in the CFL.
Sickens me to say it, but this won't end well for the heroes in red.
Saskatchewan 30, Calgary 21
Week Three Picks 'n' Results
So this is what I had for last week. The week before I went 2-2, making me 5-3 for the year.
Calgary over Toronto (nope), Hamilton over Winnipeg (yup), Montreal over BC (yup), Saskatchewan over BC (yup).
That's 3-1 for week three, 8-4 for the year. Computer crashes suck. Avoid them.
Calgary over Toronto (nope), Hamilton over Winnipeg (yup), Montreal over BC (yup), Saskatchewan over BC (yup).
That's 3-1 for week three, 8-4 for the year. Computer crashes suck. Avoid them.
Crash
Computer crashed. Lost a week or two. Will you believe me if I get the picks (done ahead of time, honest!) up after the games? No? Too bad, I'm doing it anyway.
Friday, July 9, 2010
Week Two Picks
Last week I went 2-2, guessing right on Calgary over Toronto and Saskatchewan over Montreal, missing on Hamilton/Winnipeg and BC/Edmonton. Let's aim for better, shall we?
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Toronto (+11.5) @ Winnipeg (-11.5)
Ten days ago, this seemed a little more even. Not "even," mind you, but "a little more even." Toronto is about where we expected - good defence, semi-pro offence. Winnipeg surprised, throttling Hamilton last week from start to finish, a team I thought was simply better. One game doesn't always mean much, but here's the thing: we always knew the Bombers were better than the Argos - now we're surprised just how much better.
This won't be the shellacking many predict - Kevin Eiben will contain Fred Reid's damage, and with Adriano Belli back from suspension, Buck Pierce simply won't have as much time; the Argos did a fine job containing Henry Burris last week. The Bombers take a surprisingly close game - again, I wouldn't give Toronto 11.5 points.
Winnipeg 23, Toronto 15
Calgary (+2) @ Hamilton (-2)
Another game most were predicting differently last week. Hamilton is this year's chique pick, some suggesting they could even challenge Montreal's reign over the East, while Calgary is this year's pick to disappoint - I was shocked how many people picked them to finish fourth in the West.
As usual with chique picks, there was some (hopeful?) exaggeration. Hamilton probably isn't as good as they seemed, and Calgary is (again, probably) on par with BC and Edmonton. Hamilton is the slight favourite here, despite the league's worst performance last week. They somehow lost by 20, despite two return touchdowns from Marcus Thigpen - that's bad. 15 points on offence isn't going to cut it.
Calgary's offence was frustrated last week as well, but moved the ball well - finishing drives was an issue. The Stamps were the league's best red zone team last year, so should improve there. (Granted, missing Jeremaine Copeland hurts.)
Can Calgary's still-suspect pass defence continue to hold up against a veteran CFL quarterback with recognizable receivers? Or will Kevin Glenn deliver another subpar performance and ignite a controversy? It's impossible to be unbiased about the Stamps, but I think the tea leaves are promising here. Calgary in a high-scoring, tight game.
Calgary 39, Hamilton 35
Saskatchewan (+2) @ BC (-2)
On the face of it, the most ludicrous line of the week - you probably won't see the Riders given points more than a handful of times of this year. But this game might be something of a perfect storm.
The Lions are playing under the Vancouver sunshine for the first time since the 80s, and in front of a sellout crowd - also a novelty. Instead of a ho-hum half-full BC Place - where crowd noise goes to die - the team is fired up.
The Riders are used to atmosphere (duh) but this game has every appearance of a classic trap game. They undoubtedly had their gaze fixed on week one, a chance to avenge the most heartbreaking Grey Cup loss imaginable in front of their home crowd - and did so in the most dramatic fashion. Can they stay up and focused this week? I realize these guys are professionals - and very, very good - but I just don't see how.
BC looked dominant last week, dismantling a fragile Eskimos team despite a very average performance from Casey Printers. Jamal Robertson won't find as many holes this week, so Printers will need to make a few plays. Hard to tell based on just one week, but BC's pass rush looks awesome (a west coast staple) yet again.
The Riders enter the game red hot on offence and decent on defence - they gave up a lot of points, but Montreal is better than BC, and the Riders got better as the game went on. Will it be enough to overcome the intangibles this week? Very possibly. But I'm guessing no.
Do I think Saskatchewan is the superior team? Yes. I just don't think they'll win this one. Call it an anomaly if you want.
BC 33, Saskatchewan 23
Montreal (-6) @ Edmonton (+6)
Six points?
That's all? An unconverted touchdown?
It's as if the oddsmakers are taking into account Edmonton's rich history of football prowess, rather than recent performances. Montreal is more than a touchdown better than Edmonton this year, period, full stop.
Why am I so confident? The way Edmonton lost against BC. Not only was their offensive line embarrassingly bad - and the Als can bring the pass rush too - but after the game, their coaches openly questioned their mental and emotional state. After a good start, one turnover seemed to deflate the entire team, and they never recovered. They're like a boxer with a glass jaw; one shot in the mouth and they start questioning everything.
Arkee Whitlock had a decent performance, and the Eskimos' receivers - especially if Kelly Campbell is good to go after a painful injury - can do a lot of damage. But Ricky Ray was getting killed all game, and Montreal will be releasing the hounds on each and every play. That can backfire - and probably will at least once - but Ray still has to survive another 16 games after this one.
The Esks' defence, questioned by many before the season, held up reasonably well on the pass, but Jamal Robertson made it to the secondary untouched far too often. They can expect a big dose of Avon Cobourne, who's just as dangerous.
Montreal in a walk.
Montreal 40, Edmonton 23
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Toronto (+11.5) @ Winnipeg (-11.5)
Ten days ago, this seemed a little more even. Not "even," mind you, but "a little more even." Toronto is about where we expected - good defence, semi-pro offence. Winnipeg surprised, throttling Hamilton last week from start to finish, a team I thought was simply better. One game doesn't always mean much, but here's the thing: we always knew the Bombers were better than the Argos - now we're surprised just how much better.
This won't be the shellacking many predict - Kevin Eiben will contain Fred Reid's damage, and with Adriano Belli back from suspension, Buck Pierce simply won't have as much time; the Argos did a fine job containing Henry Burris last week. The Bombers take a surprisingly close game - again, I wouldn't give Toronto 11.5 points.
Winnipeg 23, Toronto 15
Calgary (+2) @ Hamilton (-2)
Another game most were predicting differently last week. Hamilton is this year's chique pick, some suggesting they could even challenge Montreal's reign over the East, while Calgary is this year's pick to disappoint - I was shocked how many people picked them to finish fourth in the West.
As usual with chique picks, there was some (hopeful?) exaggeration. Hamilton probably isn't as good as they seemed, and Calgary is (again, probably) on par with BC and Edmonton. Hamilton is the slight favourite here, despite the league's worst performance last week. They somehow lost by 20, despite two return touchdowns from Marcus Thigpen - that's bad. 15 points on offence isn't going to cut it.
Calgary's offence was frustrated last week as well, but moved the ball well - finishing drives was an issue. The Stamps were the league's best red zone team last year, so should improve there. (Granted, missing Jeremaine Copeland hurts.)
Can Calgary's still-suspect pass defence continue to hold up against a veteran CFL quarterback with recognizable receivers? Or will Kevin Glenn deliver another subpar performance and ignite a controversy? It's impossible to be unbiased about the Stamps, but I think the tea leaves are promising here. Calgary in a high-scoring, tight game.
Calgary 39, Hamilton 35
Saskatchewan (+2) @ BC (-2)
On the face of it, the most ludicrous line of the week - you probably won't see the Riders given points more than a handful of times of this year. But this game might be something of a perfect storm.
The Lions are playing under the Vancouver sunshine for the first time since the 80s, and in front of a sellout crowd - also a novelty. Instead of a ho-hum half-full BC Place - where crowd noise goes to die - the team is fired up.
The Riders are used to atmosphere (duh) but this game has every appearance of a classic trap game. They undoubtedly had their gaze fixed on week one, a chance to avenge the most heartbreaking Grey Cup loss imaginable in front of their home crowd - and did so in the most dramatic fashion. Can they stay up and focused this week? I realize these guys are professionals - and very, very good - but I just don't see how.
BC looked dominant last week, dismantling a fragile Eskimos team despite a very average performance from Casey Printers. Jamal Robertson won't find as many holes this week, so Printers will need to make a few plays. Hard to tell based on just one week, but BC's pass rush looks awesome (a west coast staple) yet again.
The Riders enter the game red hot on offence and decent on defence - they gave up a lot of points, but Montreal is better than BC, and the Riders got better as the game went on. Will it be enough to overcome the intangibles this week? Very possibly. But I'm guessing no.
Do I think Saskatchewan is the superior team? Yes. I just don't think they'll win this one. Call it an anomaly if you want.
BC 33, Saskatchewan 23
Montreal (-6) @ Edmonton (+6)
Six points?
That's all? An unconverted touchdown?
It's as if the oddsmakers are taking into account Edmonton's rich history of football prowess, rather than recent performances. Montreal is more than a touchdown better than Edmonton this year, period, full stop.
Why am I so confident? The way Edmonton lost against BC. Not only was their offensive line embarrassingly bad - and the Als can bring the pass rush too - but after the game, their coaches openly questioned their mental and emotional state. After a good start, one turnover seemed to deflate the entire team, and they never recovered. They're like a boxer with a glass jaw; one shot in the mouth and they start questioning everything.
Arkee Whitlock had a decent performance, and the Eskimos' receivers - especially if Kelly Campbell is good to go after a painful injury - can do a lot of damage. But Ricky Ray was getting killed all game, and Montreal will be releasing the hounds on each and every play. That can backfire - and probably will at least once - but Ray still has to survive another 16 games after this one.
The Esks' defence, questioned by many before the season, held up reasonably well on the pass, but Jamal Robertson made it to the secondary untouched far too often. They can expect a big dose of Avon Cobourne, who's just as dangerous.
Montreal in a walk.
Montreal 40, Edmonton 23
Monday, July 5, 2010
Week One Thoughts
BC 25, Edmonton 10
- Team position I had the worst preseason read on: Edmonton's offensive line. I thought they'd be about average...alas. They were horrible. Wojt, Koch, and Kabongo - the starting interior - were bullfighting. Ole!
- Still not sold on Casey Printers. His numbers were decent (20/34, 218 yards, no touchdowns, no picks) but never managed to sustain momentum. This game should have been an absolute blowout.
- Sometimes hard to tell from one game, but either Jamal Robertson is great, or Edmonton has serious tackling issues. Might be a combination.
- Hopefully Kelly Campbell works the kinks out. Poor dude looked like he was in a *lot* of pain. The Esks need his playmaking ability in the worst way.
Calgary 30, Toronto 16
- Believe it or not, this was a decent debut for Cleo Lemon. He didn't embarrass himself, which was a real danger. Still, after Dalton Bell made a case for the job in preseason, one has to wonder how he would've done. The Argos' D is good, but they won't keep them in every game without any help on offence.
- Less than 30,000 in the stands in Calgary. A shame.
- Not exactly a scintillating game. Were I not a Stamps geek, I probably would've switched to Smackdown or something. Or, you know...gone outside or something crazy like that.
- He's not getting much attention so far, but it's a huge relief to see Mike Labinjo looking slim and energized. As he goes, so does Calgary's defence. This is significant.
- The Stamps' retooled defence looked good, but it's awfully hard to gauge against Toronto. I'll withhold comment until next week.
Winnipeg 49, Hamilton 29
- Hamilton: what happened, man? You're this year's chique pick.
- No really: what happened?
- Fred Reid might be the CFL's most overlooked impact player. Second in league rushing last year, he ran away from a lot of embarrassed-looking TiCats.
- Uh oh...is there a QB controversy brewing in Hamilton? Kevin Glenn just wasn't very good. Quinton Porter is the future. When does the future become now?
- Hard not to be happy for Buck Pierce. He's the third-best looking quarterback in the league right now.
Saskatchewan 54, Montreal 51
- It really needs and deserves to be said: wow. This was a game for the ages.
- The Riders actually had two different too many men calls in this game. That's either funny or terrifying, depending on which colour you wear to games. Someone may lose a job if this happens again.
- Saskatchewan actually had a very slow start on offence, unable to do anything other than pass to Weston Dressler. Obviously they got untracked.
- Montreal's defence was completely gassed midway through the fourth quarter. Including overtime, I believe the Riders scored touchdowns on five of their last six possessions - and you never had the sense there was even a chance they'd fail to score in OT. Yes, it was hot in Regina, but the Als might be concerned about conditioning.
- Team position I had the worst preseason read on: Edmonton's offensive line. I thought they'd be about average...alas. They were horrible. Wojt, Koch, and Kabongo - the starting interior - were bullfighting. Ole!
- Still not sold on Casey Printers. His numbers were decent (20/34, 218 yards, no touchdowns, no picks) but never managed to sustain momentum. This game should have been an absolute blowout.
- Sometimes hard to tell from one game, but either Jamal Robertson is great, or Edmonton has serious tackling issues. Might be a combination.
- Hopefully Kelly Campbell works the kinks out. Poor dude looked like he was in a *lot* of pain. The Esks need his playmaking ability in the worst way.
Calgary 30, Toronto 16
- Believe it or not, this was a decent debut for Cleo Lemon. He didn't embarrass himself, which was a real danger. Still, after Dalton Bell made a case for the job in preseason, one has to wonder how he would've done. The Argos' D is good, but they won't keep them in every game without any help on offence.
- Less than 30,000 in the stands in Calgary. A shame.
- Not exactly a scintillating game. Were I not a Stamps geek, I probably would've switched to Smackdown or something. Or, you know...gone outside or something crazy like that.
- He's not getting much attention so far, but it's a huge relief to see Mike Labinjo looking slim and energized. As he goes, so does Calgary's defence. This is significant.
- The Stamps' retooled defence looked good, but it's awfully hard to gauge against Toronto. I'll withhold comment until next week.
Winnipeg 49, Hamilton 29
- Hamilton: what happened, man? You're this year's chique pick.
- No really: what happened?
- Fred Reid might be the CFL's most overlooked impact player. Second in league rushing last year, he ran away from a lot of embarrassed-looking TiCats.
- Uh oh...is there a QB controversy brewing in Hamilton? Kevin Glenn just wasn't very good. Quinton Porter is the future. When does the future become now?
- Hard not to be happy for Buck Pierce. He's the third-best looking quarterback in the league right now.
Saskatchewan 54, Montreal 51
- It really needs and deserves to be said: wow. This was a game for the ages.
- The Riders actually had two different too many men calls in this game. That's either funny or terrifying, depending on which colour you wear to games. Someone may lose a job if this happens again.
- Saskatchewan actually had a very slow start on offence, unable to do anything other than pass to Weston Dressler. Obviously they got untracked.
- Montreal's defence was completely gassed midway through the fourth quarter. Including overtime, I believe the Riders scored touchdowns on five of their last six possessions - and you never had the sense there was even a chance they'd fail to score in OT. Yes, it was hot in Regina, but the Als might be concerned about conditioning.
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