As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Hamilton 1-2 (+9) @ Montreal 2-1 (-9)A deceptive line, to say the least. Montreal has escaped twice by the skin of their teeth. But for some bad luck on the Eskimos' part, they should've lost in Edmonton; and barely beat a wobbly BC team, scoring only 16 points. Montreal's been very good for a very long time, so it's tempting to say it's just rust.
Hamilton, on the other hand, has been improving each week. Granted, they had a long way to go, but they have all cylinders firing now. They have the league's best returner in Marcus Thigpen. Their defence held the Bombers to just 7 points last week. The offence is humming, with Kevin Glenn playing a near-perfect game last week, and De'Andra Cobb finally getting the running game going.
So, this is a tough one. Is Montreal (still) better than Hamilton? Probably. Are they nine points better? Well....we'll see. Debuting their refurbished stadium - in front of 25% more fans than previous capacity - may make the difference here.
Montreal 26, Hamilton 23
BC 1-2 (-3) @ Toronto 2-1 (+3)
How in the world is BC favoured to win this game?
The Lions steamrolled Edmonton in week one, then got pummeled by the Riders and managed just 12 points at home against Montreal. Granted, those two losses were against last year's finalists, but it never seemed as though the Lions were at or near their level.
Casey Printers is hurt, meaning Travis Lulay will start for BC. I still think this is an upgrade - though Buono's best option is still on the bench in Jarious Jackson. Lulay hasn't started a game since 2007 (in another league) but Printers has lost a step since coming back from the NFL. He'll need to be careful against Toronto's feisty and savvy defence, especially LB Kevin Eiben and HB Willie Middlebrooks, who have been all over the field.
Toronto's offence has mostly consisted of Cory Boyd running the ball and Cleo Lemon generating about 175 yards through the air. That's not enough to win every week, but if they don't turn the ball over, it's enough to keep games close. That might be enough against the Lions.
Toronto 20, BC 16
Edmonton 0-3 (+2) @ Winnipeg 1-2 (-2)
The Eskimos are the most formidable 0-3 team in recent memory. In consecutive weeks, they had Montreal and Saskatchewan on the ropes, leading into the fourth quarter. Both times, the wheels fell off and the Eskimos collapsed like a house of cards. A lot of that - especially against Montreal, with two dropped touchdown passes - was bad luck. Every team experiences unusual amounts of good or bad luck every so often, but it does tend to even out.
They're also fortunate to catch Winnipeg without Buck Pierce, out with a knee injury. (You're shocked, I know.) Steven Jyles (a former Eskimo) has been a well-regarded development project for years now, but this will be just his second start. He didn't look bad in relief work last week, but then again, the Bombers only scored seven points. Even at his nadir, Ricky Ray is worth two or three times that.
Bottom line: Edmonton is better than their record. Winnipeg is exactly as good as theirs.
Edmonton 36, Winnipeg 23
Saskatchewan 3-0 (+2) @ Calgary 2-1 (-2)
The one game I find it most difficult to be objective about.
There's only one way to approach this: the Riders owned Calgary last year. Owned. The Stamps mustered one near-perfect game at home, and it earned them a tie. Add this to the green barbarian horde effect at McMahon, and this is an uncomfortable game.
Here's the funny thing: on paper, this actually doesn't seem like a mismatch at all. The Stamps are an above-average team. But their two key weaknesses, offensive line and defensive halfback, are serious ones. The offensive line collapsed last week in Toronto, scaring the Frank back into Hank. The Riders aren't as dominant as last year along the line, but they're still very good - and smart enough to have watched a LOT of tape from last week.
Similarly, the Stamps' lopsided secondary (strong wherever Brandon Browner is, suspect everywhere else) may get eaten alive by Saskatchewan's receiving corps, the best in the CFL.
Sickens me to say it, but this won't end well for the heroes in red.
Saskatchewan 30, Calgary 21
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Week Three Picks 'n' Results
So this is what I had for last week. The week before I went 2-2, making me 5-3 for the year.
Calgary over Toronto (nope), Hamilton over Winnipeg (yup), Montreal over BC (yup), Saskatchewan over BC (yup).
That's 3-1 for week three, 8-4 for the year. Computer crashes suck. Avoid them.
Calgary over Toronto (nope), Hamilton over Winnipeg (yup), Montreal over BC (yup), Saskatchewan over BC (yup).
That's 3-1 for week three, 8-4 for the year. Computer crashes suck. Avoid them.
Crash
Computer crashed. Lost a week or two. Will you believe me if I get the picks (done ahead of time, honest!) up after the games? No? Too bad, I'm doing it anyway.
Friday, July 9, 2010
Week Two Picks
Last week I went 2-2, guessing right on Calgary over Toronto and Saskatchewan over Montreal, missing on Hamilton/Winnipeg and BC/Edmonton. Let's aim for better, shall we?
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Toronto (+11.5) @ Winnipeg (-11.5)
Ten days ago, this seemed a little more even. Not "even," mind you, but "a little more even." Toronto is about where we expected - good defence, semi-pro offence. Winnipeg surprised, throttling Hamilton last week from start to finish, a team I thought was simply better. One game doesn't always mean much, but here's the thing: we always knew the Bombers were better than the Argos - now we're surprised just how much better.
This won't be the shellacking many predict - Kevin Eiben will contain Fred Reid's damage, and with Adriano Belli back from suspension, Buck Pierce simply won't have as much time; the Argos did a fine job containing Henry Burris last week. The Bombers take a surprisingly close game - again, I wouldn't give Toronto 11.5 points.
Winnipeg 23, Toronto 15
Calgary (+2) @ Hamilton (-2)
Another game most were predicting differently last week. Hamilton is this year's chique pick, some suggesting they could even challenge Montreal's reign over the East, while Calgary is this year's pick to disappoint - I was shocked how many people picked them to finish fourth in the West.
As usual with chique picks, there was some (hopeful?) exaggeration. Hamilton probably isn't as good as they seemed, and Calgary is (again, probably) on par with BC and Edmonton. Hamilton is the slight favourite here, despite the league's worst performance last week. They somehow lost by 20, despite two return touchdowns from Marcus Thigpen - that's bad. 15 points on offence isn't going to cut it.
Calgary's offence was frustrated last week as well, but moved the ball well - finishing drives was an issue. The Stamps were the league's best red zone team last year, so should improve there. (Granted, missing Jeremaine Copeland hurts.)
Can Calgary's still-suspect pass defence continue to hold up against a veteran CFL quarterback with recognizable receivers? Or will Kevin Glenn deliver another subpar performance and ignite a controversy? It's impossible to be unbiased about the Stamps, but I think the tea leaves are promising here. Calgary in a high-scoring, tight game.
Calgary 39, Hamilton 35
Saskatchewan (+2) @ BC (-2)
On the face of it, the most ludicrous line of the week - you probably won't see the Riders given points more than a handful of times of this year. But this game might be something of a perfect storm.
The Lions are playing under the Vancouver sunshine for the first time since the 80s, and in front of a sellout crowd - also a novelty. Instead of a ho-hum half-full BC Place - where crowd noise goes to die - the team is fired up.
The Riders are used to atmosphere (duh) but this game has every appearance of a classic trap game. They undoubtedly had their gaze fixed on week one, a chance to avenge the most heartbreaking Grey Cup loss imaginable in front of their home crowd - and did so in the most dramatic fashion. Can they stay up and focused this week? I realize these guys are professionals - and very, very good - but I just don't see how.
BC looked dominant last week, dismantling a fragile Eskimos team despite a very average performance from Casey Printers. Jamal Robertson won't find as many holes this week, so Printers will need to make a few plays. Hard to tell based on just one week, but BC's pass rush looks awesome (a west coast staple) yet again.
The Riders enter the game red hot on offence and decent on defence - they gave up a lot of points, but Montreal is better than BC, and the Riders got better as the game went on. Will it be enough to overcome the intangibles this week? Very possibly. But I'm guessing no.
Do I think Saskatchewan is the superior team? Yes. I just don't think they'll win this one. Call it an anomaly if you want.
BC 33, Saskatchewan 23
Montreal (-6) @ Edmonton (+6)
Six points?
That's all? An unconverted touchdown?
It's as if the oddsmakers are taking into account Edmonton's rich history of football prowess, rather than recent performances. Montreal is more than a touchdown better than Edmonton this year, period, full stop.
Why am I so confident? The way Edmonton lost against BC. Not only was their offensive line embarrassingly bad - and the Als can bring the pass rush too - but after the game, their coaches openly questioned their mental and emotional state. After a good start, one turnover seemed to deflate the entire team, and they never recovered. They're like a boxer with a glass jaw; one shot in the mouth and they start questioning everything.
Arkee Whitlock had a decent performance, and the Eskimos' receivers - especially if Kelly Campbell is good to go after a painful injury - can do a lot of damage. But Ricky Ray was getting killed all game, and Montreal will be releasing the hounds on each and every play. That can backfire - and probably will at least once - but Ray still has to survive another 16 games after this one.
The Esks' defence, questioned by many before the season, held up reasonably well on the pass, but Jamal Robertson made it to the secondary untouched far too often. They can expect a big dose of Avon Cobourne, who's just as dangerous.
Montreal in a walk.
Montreal 40, Edmonton 23
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Toronto (+11.5) @ Winnipeg (-11.5)
Ten days ago, this seemed a little more even. Not "even," mind you, but "a little more even." Toronto is about where we expected - good defence, semi-pro offence. Winnipeg surprised, throttling Hamilton last week from start to finish, a team I thought was simply better. One game doesn't always mean much, but here's the thing: we always knew the Bombers were better than the Argos - now we're surprised just how much better.
This won't be the shellacking many predict - Kevin Eiben will contain Fred Reid's damage, and with Adriano Belli back from suspension, Buck Pierce simply won't have as much time; the Argos did a fine job containing Henry Burris last week. The Bombers take a surprisingly close game - again, I wouldn't give Toronto 11.5 points.
Winnipeg 23, Toronto 15
Calgary (+2) @ Hamilton (-2)
Another game most were predicting differently last week. Hamilton is this year's chique pick, some suggesting they could even challenge Montreal's reign over the East, while Calgary is this year's pick to disappoint - I was shocked how many people picked them to finish fourth in the West.
As usual with chique picks, there was some (hopeful?) exaggeration. Hamilton probably isn't as good as they seemed, and Calgary is (again, probably) on par with BC and Edmonton. Hamilton is the slight favourite here, despite the league's worst performance last week. They somehow lost by 20, despite two return touchdowns from Marcus Thigpen - that's bad. 15 points on offence isn't going to cut it.
Calgary's offence was frustrated last week as well, but moved the ball well - finishing drives was an issue. The Stamps were the league's best red zone team last year, so should improve there. (Granted, missing Jeremaine Copeland hurts.)
Can Calgary's still-suspect pass defence continue to hold up against a veteran CFL quarterback with recognizable receivers? Or will Kevin Glenn deliver another subpar performance and ignite a controversy? It's impossible to be unbiased about the Stamps, but I think the tea leaves are promising here. Calgary in a high-scoring, tight game.
Calgary 39, Hamilton 35
Saskatchewan (+2) @ BC (-2)
On the face of it, the most ludicrous line of the week - you probably won't see the Riders given points more than a handful of times of this year. But this game might be something of a perfect storm.
The Lions are playing under the Vancouver sunshine for the first time since the 80s, and in front of a sellout crowd - also a novelty. Instead of a ho-hum half-full BC Place - where crowd noise goes to die - the team is fired up.
The Riders are used to atmosphere (duh) but this game has every appearance of a classic trap game. They undoubtedly had their gaze fixed on week one, a chance to avenge the most heartbreaking Grey Cup loss imaginable in front of their home crowd - and did so in the most dramatic fashion. Can they stay up and focused this week? I realize these guys are professionals - and very, very good - but I just don't see how.
BC looked dominant last week, dismantling a fragile Eskimos team despite a very average performance from Casey Printers. Jamal Robertson won't find as many holes this week, so Printers will need to make a few plays. Hard to tell based on just one week, but BC's pass rush looks awesome (a west coast staple) yet again.
The Riders enter the game red hot on offence and decent on defence - they gave up a lot of points, but Montreal is better than BC, and the Riders got better as the game went on. Will it be enough to overcome the intangibles this week? Very possibly. But I'm guessing no.
Do I think Saskatchewan is the superior team? Yes. I just don't think they'll win this one. Call it an anomaly if you want.
BC 33, Saskatchewan 23
Montreal (-6) @ Edmonton (+6)
Six points?
That's all? An unconverted touchdown?
It's as if the oddsmakers are taking into account Edmonton's rich history of football prowess, rather than recent performances. Montreal is more than a touchdown better than Edmonton this year, period, full stop.
Why am I so confident? The way Edmonton lost against BC. Not only was their offensive line embarrassingly bad - and the Als can bring the pass rush too - but after the game, their coaches openly questioned their mental and emotional state. After a good start, one turnover seemed to deflate the entire team, and they never recovered. They're like a boxer with a glass jaw; one shot in the mouth and they start questioning everything.
Arkee Whitlock had a decent performance, and the Eskimos' receivers - especially if Kelly Campbell is good to go after a painful injury - can do a lot of damage. But Ricky Ray was getting killed all game, and Montreal will be releasing the hounds on each and every play. That can backfire - and probably will at least once - but Ray still has to survive another 16 games after this one.
The Esks' defence, questioned by many before the season, held up reasonably well on the pass, but Jamal Robertson made it to the secondary untouched far too often. They can expect a big dose of Avon Cobourne, who's just as dangerous.
Montreal in a walk.
Montreal 40, Edmonton 23
Monday, July 5, 2010
Week One Thoughts
BC 25, Edmonton 10
- Team position I had the worst preseason read on: Edmonton's offensive line. I thought they'd be about average...alas. They were horrible. Wojt, Koch, and Kabongo - the starting interior - were bullfighting. Ole!
- Still not sold on Casey Printers. His numbers were decent (20/34, 218 yards, no touchdowns, no picks) but never managed to sustain momentum. This game should have been an absolute blowout.
- Sometimes hard to tell from one game, but either Jamal Robertson is great, or Edmonton has serious tackling issues. Might be a combination.
- Hopefully Kelly Campbell works the kinks out. Poor dude looked like he was in a *lot* of pain. The Esks need his playmaking ability in the worst way.
Calgary 30, Toronto 16
- Believe it or not, this was a decent debut for Cleo Lemon. He didn't embarrass himself, which was a real danger. Still, after Dalton Bell made a case for the job in preseason, one has to wonder how he would've done. The Argos' D is good, but they won't keep them in every game without any help on offence.
- Less than 30,000 in the stands in Calgary. A shame.
- Not exactly a scintillating game. Were I not a Stamps geek, I probably would've switched to Smackdown or something. Or, you know...gone outside or something crazy like that.
- He's not getting much attention so far, but it's a huge relief to see Mike Labinjo looking slim and energized. As he goes, so does Calgary's defence. This is significant.
- The Stamps' retooled defence looked good, but it's awfully hard to gauge against Toronto. I'll withhold comment until next week.
Winnipeg 49, Hamilton 29
- Hamilton: what happened, man? You're this year's chique pick.
- No really: what happened?
- Fred Reid might be the CFL's most overlooked impact player. Second in league rushing last year, he ran away from a lot of embarrassed-looking TiCats.
- Uh oh...is there a QB controversy brewing in Hamilton? Kevin Glenn just wasn't very good. Quinton Porter is the future. When does the future become now?
- Hard not to be happy for Buck Pierce. He's the third-best looking quarterback in the league right now.
Saskatchewan 54, Montreal 51
- It really needs and deserves to be said: wow. This was a game for the ages.
- The Riders actually had two different too many men calls in this game. That's either funny or terrifying, depending on which colour you wear to games. Someone may lose a job if this happens again.
- Saskatchewan actually had a very slow start on offence, unable to do anything other than pass to Weston Dressler. Obviously they got untracked.
- Montreal's defence was completely gassed midway through the fourth quarter. Including overtime, I believe the Riders scored touchdowns on five of their last six possessions - and you never had the sense there was even a chance they'd fail to score in OT. Yes, it was hot in Regina, but the Als might be concerned about conditioning.
- Team position I had the worst preseason read on: Edmonton's offensive line. I thought they'd be about average...alas. They were horrible. Wojt, Koch, and Kabongo - the starting interior - were bullfighting. Ole!
- Still not sold on Casey Printers. His numbers were decent (20/34, 218 yards, no touchdowns, no picks) but never managed to sustain momentum. This game should have been an absolute blowout.
- Sometimes hard to tell from one game, but either Jamal Robertson is great, or Edmonton has serious tackling issues. Might be a combination.
- Hopefully Kelly Campbell works the kinks out. Poor dude looked like he was in a *lot* of pain. The Esks need his playmaking ability in the worst way.
Calgary 30, Toronto 16
- Believe it or not, this was a decent debut for Cleo Lemon. He didn't embarrass himself, which was a real danger. Still, after Dalton Bell made a case for the job in preseason, one has to wonder how he would've done. The Argos' D is good, but they won't keep them in every game without any help on offence.
- Less than 30,000 in the stands in Calgary. A shame.
- Not exactly a scintillating game. Were I not a Stamps geek, I probably would've switched to Smackdown or something. Or, you know...gone outside or something crazy like that.
- He's not getting much attention so far, but it's a huge relief to see Mike Labinjo looking slim and energized. As he goes, so does Calgary's defence. This is significant.
- The Stamps' retooled defence looked good, but it's awfully hard to gauge against Toronto. I'll withhold comment until next week.
Winnipeg 49, Hamilton 29
- Hamilton: what happened, man? You're this year's chique pick.
- No really: what happened?
- Fred Reid might be the CFL's most overlooked impact player. Second in league rushing last year, he ran away from a lot of embarrassed-looking TiCats.
- Uh oh...is there a QB controversy brewing in Hamilton? Kevin Glenn just wasn't very good. Quinton Porter is the future. When does the future become now?
- Hard not to be happy for Buck Pierce. He's the third-best looking quarterback in the league right now.
Saskatchewan 54, Montreal 51
- It really needs and deserves to be said: wow. This was a game for the ages.
- The Riders actually had two different too many men calls in this game. That's either funny or terrifying, depending on which colour you wear to games. Someone may lose a job if this happens again.
- Saskatchewan actually had a very slow start on offence, unable to do anything other than pass to Weston Dressler. Obviously they got untracked.
- Montreal's defence was completely gassed midway through the fourth quarter. Including overtime, I believe the Riders scored touchdowns on five of their last six possessions - and you never had the sense there was even a chance they'd fail to score in OT. Yes, it was hot in Regina, but the Als might be concerned about conditioning.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Instant Reaction: Stamps 30, Argos 16
- Not to say "I told you so," but that went pretty much as expected. The Argos were unable to put much of anything together on offence, but their defence did an amazing job of keeping the Stamps in check.
- Rob Maver looked decent, but missed the one long-ish kick. My fears are not entirely assuaged.
- The Stamps' new o-line was adequate - but I got the feeling Hufnagel was scheming to protect them. Burris likes to move, but there seemed to be a lot more bootlegs and rollouts than usual - quite often with a defender in his face. If the line needs smoke and mirrors, Burris will be eaten alive this year.
- With his helmet on, Cleo Lemon looks rather extraordinarily like Kerry Joseph.
- Lemon's CFL debut probably earns about a C. He certainly didn't lose the game by himself, but neither did he do a lot to impress. He made a few questionable decisions, and probably got away with grounding more than once. It doesn't help that the Argos' receiving corps is putrid. There's Jeremaine Copeland (covered like glue all night) and a bunch of refugees. If someone doesn't emerge - hopefully one or two someones - this team will be BAD. Brandon Rideau may be a candidate, but he dropped a crucial (and perfect) pass in the second half, after Lemon was creamed for his efforts.
- Duane Forde kept asking, and there's no good answer: why on Earth don't the Argos run more? On paper, they have a decent line, and Cory Boyd looks competent. Ditto short passes to Andre Durie.
- Hopefully it's just early-season rust that made Job Cornish and Deon Murphy lose two bad fumbles.
- Henry Burris will probably take some criticism for this game, but I actually liked what he did: he didn't force the ball, and took what the Argos gave him - short, underneath stuff. He had a very Ricky Ray-like outing. You can tell he's trying to spread the ball around - wonder if that will continue when Ken-Yon Rambo comes back.
- It's impossible to judge, based on the woefulness of the Argos' passing game, but the Stamps's retooled secondary held up well. Real tests against real teams with real CFL quarterbacks and receivers begin next week. For this squad, it was almost like a third preseason game.
- Rob Maver looked decent, but missed the one long-ish kick. My fears are not entirely assuaged.
- The Stamps' new o-line was adequate - but I got the feeling Hufnagel was scheming to protect them. Burris likes to move, but there seemed to be a lot more bootlegs and rollouts than usual - quite often with a defender in his face. If the line needs smoke and mirrors, Burris will be eaten alive this year.
- With his helmet on, Cleo Lemon looks rather extraordinarily like Kerry Joseph.
- Lemon's CFL debut probably earns about a C. He certainly didn't lose the game by himself, but neither did he do a lot to impress. He made a few questionable decisions, and probably got away with grounding more than once. It doesn't help that the Argos' receiving corps is putrid. There's Jeremaine Copeland (covered like glue all night) and a bunch of refugees. If someone doesn't emerge - hopefully one or two someones - this team will be BAD. Brandon Rideau may be a candidate, but he dropped a crucial (and perfect) pass in the second half, after Lemon was creamed for his efforts.
- Duane Forde kept asking, and there's no good answer: why on Earth don't the Argos run more? On paper, they have a decent line, and Cory Boyd looks competent. Ditto short passes to Andre Durie.
- Hopefully it's just early-season rust that made Job Cornish and Deon Murphy lose two bad fumbles.
- Henry Burris will probably take some criticism for this game, but I actually liked what he did: he didn't force the ball, and took what the Argos gave him - short, underneath stuff. He had a very Ricky Ray-like outing. You can tell he's trying to spread the ball around - wonder if that will continue when Ken-Yon Rambo comes back.
- It's impossible to judge, based on the woefulness of the Argos' passing game, but the Stamps's retooled secondary held up well. Real tests against real teams with real CFL quarterbacks and receivers begin next week. For this squad, it was almost like a third preseason game.
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