As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark:
Last week 2-2, 17-9 on the year.
BC 1-5 @ Saskatchewan 4-2 (Saskatchewan favoured by 8.5)
This has the feel (and line) of a blowout, but the more you look, the more you can talk yourself into a decent game. Consider:
- Saskatchewan's defence is the worst in the league, and seems to be regressing as the season continues.
- BC is finally playing veteran Jarious Jackson at quarterback. Jackson isn't elite by any means, but he should generate considerably more offence than Travis Lulay's 150 yards or so. He also stands a much better chance of handling the crowd in Regina. The Riders are susceptible to a strong ground game, and Jamal Robertson is more than capable.
- Saskatchewan has been moving the ball well (if streaky), but BC's defence is surprisingly solid. They kept the Lions in last week's game long after the Stampeders should've put them away.
Do I think the Lions will actually win? As hard as it is to imagine Wally Buono coaching a 1-6 team, I still can't quite talk myself into the upset pick. But I hummed and hawed over it long enough that, should BC find a way to win, I'll kick myself extra hard. Still, I think the Riders will find this one uncomfortably close.
Saskatchewan 23, BC 21
Hamilton 2-4 @ Winnipeg 2-4 (Winnipeg favoured by 3.5)
I could swear this game already happened. Meeting for the 15th time in 17 weeks (not really), the Ticats and Bombers know each other well. But they seem to be heading in opposite directions.
Winnipeg started the year strong, with Buck Pierce energizing the team (and fanbase) with his exciting, if risky play. He got hurt. Again. Backup Steven Jyles isn't as bad as some seem to think, but he's not good enough to carry the team, and does seem to suffer through bouts of prolonged accuracy issues. Similarly, the defence came out of week one like gangbusters, but seems to be on a gradual decline, releasing Ike Charlton last week even as he led the team in tackles. Fed up with inconsistency, this week the team ditched kicker Alexis Serna, and plan to use former backup punter Louie Sakoda. Yikes.
Hamilton started slow, but despite a very suspect offensive line, have picked things up. Kevin Glenn is playing the best football of his career right now (boy, he'd look good in a Bombers uniform...whoops) and the defence is rounding into form.
I don't think the Hamilton stadium imbroglio will affect or distract the team - yet. Emphasis on "yet."
Home field has been important in this rivalry, but I just think Hamilton is better at this moment in time.
Hamilton 30, Winnipeg 18
Montreal 5-1 @ Toronto 4-2 (Montreal favoured by 7.5)
Hard to believe these teams are a combined 9-3 on the year, with one of those losses coming head-to-head. That loss, a 41-10 Alouettes blowout win, was as decisive as CFL games get. Can much change in two weeks?
The Argos have been relying on defence and the league's top rushing game to keep games close, but the Alouettes managed to shut Cory Boyd down almost completely. Cleo Lemon has been improving, but he can expect the Als to try exactly what worked so well two weeks ago - he's going to have to generate a lot of yardage and points.
He's getting there. He's not there yet.
Montreal 27, Toronto 16
Edmonton 1-5 @ Calgary 5-1 (Calgary favoured by 9)
I can't even describe how happy this game makes me. I just don't see how the Stamps lose this game.
Calgary 33, Edmonton 18
(I said I can't describe it.)
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Friday, August 6, 2010
Week Six Picks
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark:
Saskatchewan (+6.5) @ Montreal (-6.5)
The Grey Cup rematch, and main event for this week. After being hammered in Calgary, the Riders looked strangely vulnerable on defence against Hamilton. They were simply unable to stop or even cover Arland Bruce, which I'm sure Marc Trestman and OC Scott Milanovich took keen notice of. If there's a weakness, the Als definitely have the horses to exploit it.
On the other side, the Riders' attack continues to hum like a well-oiled machine. This is arguably the deepest and most consistent receiving corps in the league, and tackling Darian Durant is like wrestling a greased pig. (So I hear, anyway. Ahem.)
The Als are rightly pissed about blowing their week one meeting ("a slap in the face") but it wasn't bad luck - they couldn't finish. Somehow, I see that happening again. Saskatchewan in another come from behind thriller.
Saskatchewan 40, Montreal 37
Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (-6.5)
Interesting matchup of mirror-image teams. Toronto has a good record but hasn't impressed, and aside from one blowout and three awful fourth quarters, Edmonton has looked dangerous at times. This game will say a lot about both teams - is Toronto's record smoke and mirrors? Has Edmonton just been unlucky?
I think there's a bit of truth to both. Toronto is certainly a limited team - their passing game is woeful - but their defence and running game have kept them afloat. Cory Boyd isn't the league's leading rusher for nothing, and the special teams have delivered when it matters. I still can't decide if their passing game suffers from inexperienced receivers, subpar quarterback play, or bad playcalling. Again, there's probably an element of all three.
Edmonton is a strange case. Their best players match up with anyone in the league, but where they're weak, they're weak. Despite the fanbase, Ricky Ray isn't the problem - though he hasn't been great. The offensive line has been simply horrible, and subbing in Jason Maas or Jared Zabransky won't change that.
If Edmonton gets ahead, and they have the weapons, it will be difficult for Toronto to fight back. That's exactly what happened last week in Montreal; once they have to go to the air exclusively, things snowball on them. But in a low-scoring field position slugfest, the Argos can beat anybody.
Somehow, I just see Edmonton getting a key bounce or two to win. Nothing would surprise me, though.
Edmonton 19, Toronto 15
Winnipeg (+3) @ Hamilton (-3)
Again? These teams probably know each other very well by this point, facing off for the third time this season. The teams split one-sided home wins, which is probably the only reason Hamilton are slight favourites here.
Winnipeg is a classic CFL 'tweener team. Flashy and fun (especially with Buck Pierce), demonstrably better than the bottom-feeders, but a clear notch or two behind the top dogs. It looks like Steven Jyles will play ahead of Pierce again, and while he's a decent backup, this probably means at least 7 fewer points for the Bombers. In a surprising move, the team cut leading tackler Ike Charlton this week, which you'd think will weaken the defence, at least in the short term. I'm not nearly as sold on Joe Lobendahn and safety Ian Logan as some, and think this team can be picked apart by a good offence.
But do the TiCats have one? Hamilton was this year's chique pick team, which is almost always the kiss of death. Receiver Arland Bruce has been phenomenal, Kevin Glenn has been competent, but De'Andra Cobb has been hugely disappointing, and the team lacks balance. The defence and special teams have also been uneven, especially Sandro DeAngelis, who is about two more bad games from a release.
The very definition of a pick'em. Let's say Hamilton, if only because of home field.
Hamilton 28, Winnipeg 26
Calgary (-3.5) @ BC (+3.5)BC is descending into a mess. The offseason veteran exodus and resulting youth movement has been painful, and as Buono said last week, the veterans he kept haven't exactly picked up the slack. Casey Printers has been uneven to say the least, and while Travis Lulay has shown flashes, he's not a legitimate starter yet. Offensive coordinator Jacques Chapdelaine seems to be the focal pint for criticism, but only Edmonton has been more error-prone so far.
By contrast, the Stampeders look to be hitting their stride, throttling the Riders and toughing out a win in Winnipeg. Nik Lewis has been next to unstoppable in the slot, and if Ken-Yon Rambo can give Burris a reliable deep threat to pair with Romby Bryant, watch out. The offensive line got stronger with Dmitri Tsoumpas coming back form the NFL, and the defence - especially Malik Jackson and the dynamic linebacking corps - has delivered.
BC has officially reached the desperation stage, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But they bear all the unfortunate trappings of a team in disarray, and they're hosting a very strong and improving Stamps team.
Calgary 31, BC 20
Saskatchewan (+6.5) @ Montreal (-6.5)
The Grey Cup rematch, and main event for this week. After being hammered in Calgary, the Riders looked strangely vulnerable on defence against Hamilton. They were simply unable to stop or even cover Arland Bruce, which I'm sure Marc Trestman and OC Scott Milanovich took keen notice of. If there's a weakness, the Als definitely have the horses to exploit it.
On the other side, the Riders' attack continues to hum like a well-oiled machine. This is arguably the deepest and most consistent receiving corps in the league, and tackling Darian Durant is like wrestling a greased pig. (So I hear, anyway. Ahem.)
The Als are rightly pissed about blowing their week one meeting ("a slap in the face") but it wasn't bad luck - they couldn't finish. Somehow, I see that happening again. Saskatchewan in another come from behind thriller.
Saskatchewan 40, Montreal 37
Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (-6.5)
Interesting matchup of mirror-image teams. Toronto has a good record but hasn't impressed, and aside from one blowout and three awful fourth quarters, Edmonton has looked dangerous at times. This game will say a lot about both teams - is Toronto's record smoke and mirrors? Has Edmonton just been unlucky?
I think there's a bit of truth to both. Toronto is certainly a limited team - their passing game is woeful - but their defence and running game have kept them afloat. Cory Boyd isn't the league's leading rusher for nothing, and the special teams have delivered when it matters. I still can't decide if their passing game suffers from inexperienced receivers, subpar quarterback play, or bad playcalling. Again, there's probably an element of all three.
Edmonton is a strange case. Their best players match up with anyone in the league, but where they're weak, they're weak. Despite the fanbase, Ricky Ray isn't the problem - though he hasn't been great. The offensive line has been simply horrible, and subbing in Jason Maas or Jared Zabransky won't change that.
If Edmonton gets ahead, and they have the weapons, it will be difficult for Toronto to fight back. That's exactly what happened last week in Montreal; once they have to go to the air exclusively, things snowball on them. But in a low-scoring field position slugfest, the Argos can beat anybody.
Somehow, I just see Edmonton getting a key bounce or two to win. Nothing would surprise me, though.
Edmonton 19, Toronto 15
Winnipeg (+3) @ Hamilton (-3)
Again? These teams probably know each other very well by this point, facing off for the third time this season. The teams split one-sided home wins, which is probably the only reason Hamilton are slight favourites here.
Winnipeg is a classic CFL 'tweener team. Flashy and fun (especially with Buck Pierce), demonstrably better than the bottom-feeders, but a clear notch or two behind the top dogs. It looks like Steven Jyles will play ahead of Pierce again, and while he's a decent backup, this probably means at least 7 fewer points for the Bombers. In a surprising move, the team cut leading tackler Ike Charlton this week, which you'd think will weaken the defence, at least in the short term. I'm not nearly as sold on Joe Lobendahn and safety Ian Logan as some, and think this team can be picked apart by a good offence.
But do the TiCats have one? Hamilton was this year's chique pick team, which is almost always the kiss of death. Receiver Arland Bruce has been phenomenal, Kevin Glenn has been competent, but De'Andra Cobb has been hugely disappointing, and the team lacks balance. The defence and special teams have also been uneven, especially Sandro DeAngelis, who is about two more bad games from a release.
The very definition of a pick'em. Let's say Hamilton, if only because of home field.
Hamilton 28, Winnipeg 26
Calgary (-3.5) @ BC (+3.5)BC is descending into a mess. The offseason veteran exodus and resulting youth movement has been painful, and as Buono said last week, the veterans he kept haven't exactly picked up the slack. Casey Printers has been uneven to say the least, and while Travis Lulay has shown flashes, he's not a legitimate starter yet. Offensive coordinator Jacques Chapdelaine seems to be the focal pint for criticism, but only Edmonton has been more error-prone so far.
By contrast, the Stampeders look to be hitting their stride, throttling the Riders and toughing out a win in Winnipeg. Nik Lewis has been next to unstoppable in the slot, and if Ken-Yon Rambo can give Burris a reliable deep threat to pair with Romby Bryant, watch out. The offensive line got stronger with Dmitri Tsoumpas coming back form the NFL, and the defence - especially Malik Jackson and the dynamic linebacking corps - has delivered.
BC has officially reached the desperation stage, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But they bear all the unfortunate trappings of a team in disarray, and they're hosting a very strong and improving Stamps team.
Calgary 31, BC 20
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Week Four Picks
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Hamilton 1-2 (+9) @ Montreal 2-1 (-9)A deceptive line, to say the least. Montreal has escaped twice by the skin of their teeth. But for some bad luck on the Eskimos' part, they should've lost in Edmonton; and barely beat a wobbly BC team, scoring only 16 points. Montreal's been very good for a very long time, so it's tempting to say it's just rust.
Hamilton, on the other hand, has been improving each week. Granted, they had a long way to go, but they have all cylinders firing now. They have the league's best returner in Marcus Thigpen. Their defence held the Bombers to just 7 points last week. The offence is humming, with Kevin Glenn playing a near-perfect game last week, and De'Andra Cobb finally getting the running game going.
So, this is a tough one. Is Montreal (still) better than Hamilton? Probably. Are they nine points better? Well....we'll see. Debuting their refurbished stadium - in front of 25% more fans than previous capacity - may make the difference here.
Montreal 26, Hamilton 23
BC 1-2 (-3) @ Toronto 2-1 (+3)
How in the world is BC favoured to win this game?
The Lions steamrolled Edmonton in week one, then got pummeled by the Riders and managed just 12 points at home against Montreal. Granted, those two losses were against last year's finalists, but it never seemed as though the Lions were at or near their level.
Casey Printers is hurt, meaning Travis Lulay will start for BC. I still think this is an upgrade - though Buono's best option is still on the bench in Jarious Jackson. Lulay hasn't started a game since 2007 (in another league) but Printers has lost a step since coming back from the NFL. He'll need to be careful against Toronto's feisty and savvy defence, especially LB Kevin Eiben and HB Willie Middlebrooks, who have been all over the field.
Toronto's offence has mostly consisted of Cory Boyd running the ball and Cleo Lemon generating about 175 yards through the air. That's not enough to win every week, but if they don't turn the ball over, it's enough to keep games close. That might be enough against the Lions.
Toronto 20, BC 16
Edmonton 0-3 (+2) @ Winnipeg 1-2 (-2)
The Eskimos are the most formidable 0-3 team in recent memory. In consecutive weeks, they had Montreal and Saskatchewan on the ropes, leading into the fourth quarter. Both times, the wheels fell off and the Eskimos collapsed like a house of cards. A lot of that - especially against Montreal, with two dropped touchdown passes - was bad luck. Every team experiences unusual amounts of good or bad luck every so often, but it does tend to even out.
They're also fortunate to catch Winnipeg without Buck Pierce, out with a knee injury. (You're shocked, I know.) Steven Jyles (a former Eskimo) has been a well-regarded development project for years now, but this will be just his second start. He didn't look bad in relief work last week, but then again, the Bombers only scored seven points. Even at his nadir, Ricky Ray is worth two or three times that.
Bottom line: Edmonton is better than their record. Winnipeg is exactly as good as theirs.
Edmonton 36, Winnipeg 23
Saskatchewan 3-0 (+2) @ Calgary 2-1 (-2)
The one game I find it most difficult to be objective about.
There's only one way to approach this: the Riders owned Calgary last year. Owned. The Stamps mustered one near-perfect game at home, and it earned them a tie. Add this to the green barbarian horde effect at McMahon, and this is an uncomfortable game.
Here's the funny thing: on paper, this actually doesn't seem like a mismatch at all. The Stamps are an above-average team. But their two key weaknesses, offensive line and defensive halfback, are serious ones. The offensive line collapsed last week in Toronto, scaring the Frank back into Hank. The Riders aren't as dominant as last year along the line, but they're still very good - and smart enough to have watched a LOT of tape from last week.
Similarly, the Stamps' lopsided secondary (strong wherever Brandon Browner is, suspect everywhere else) may get eaten alive by Saskatchewan's receiving corps, the best in the CFL.
Sickens me to say it, but this won't end well for the heroes in red.
Saskatchewan 30, Calgary 21
Hamilton 1-2 (+9) @ Montreal 2-1 (-9)A deceptive line, to say the least. Montreal has escaped twice by the skin of their teeth. But for some bad luck on the Eskimos' part, they should've lost in Edmonton; and barely beat a wobbly BC team, scoring only 16 points. Montreal's been very good for a very long time, so it's tempting to say it's just rust.
Hamilton, on the other hand, has been improving each week. Granted, they had a long way to go, but they have all cylinders firing now. They have the league's best returner in Marcus Thigpen. Their defence held the Bombers to just 7 points last week. The offence is humming, with Kevin Glenn playing a near-perfect game last week, and De'Andra Cobb finally getting the running game going.
So, this is a tough one. Is Montreal (still) better than Hamilton? Probably. Are they nine points better? Well....we'll see. Debuting their refurbished stadium - in front of 25% more fans than previous capacity - may make the difference here.
Montreal 26, Hamilton 23
BC 1-2 (-3) @ Toronto 2-1 (+3)
How in the world is BC favoured to win this game?
The Lions steamrolled Edmonton in week one, then got pummeled by the Riders and managed just 12 points at home against Montreal. Granted, those two losses were against last year's finalists, but it never seemed as though the Lions were at or near their level.
Casey Printers is hurt, meaning Travis Lulay will start for BC. I still think this is an upgrade - though Buono's best option is still on the bench in Jarious Jackson. Lulay hasn't started a game since 2007 (in another league) but Printers has lost a step since coming back from the NFL. He'll need to be careful against Toronto's feisty and savvy defence, especially LB Kevin Eiben and HB Willie Middlebrooks, who have been all over the field.
Toronto's offence has mostly consisted of Cory Boyd running the ball and Cleo Lemon generating about 175 yards through the air. That's not enough to win every week, but if they don't turn the ball over, it's enough to keep games close. That might be enough against the Lions.
Toronto 20, BC 16
Edmonton 0-3 (+2) @ Winnipeg 1-2 (-2)
The Eskimos are the most formidable 0-3 team in recent memory. In consecutive weeks, they had Montreal and Saskatchewan on the ropes, leading into the fourth quarter. Both times, the wheels fell off and the Eskimos collapsed like a house of cards. A lot of that - especially against Montreal, with two dropped touchdown passes - was bad luck. Every team experiences unusual amounts of good or bad luck every so often, but it does tend to even out.
They're also fortunate to catch Winnipeg without Buck Pierce, out with a knee injury. (You're shocked, I know.) Steven Jyles (a former Eskimo) has been a well-regarded development project for years now, but this will be just his second start. He didn't look bad in relief work last week, but then again, the Bombers only scored seven points. Even at his nadir, Ricky Ray is worth two or three times that.
Bottom line: Edmonton is better than their record. Winnipeg is exactly as good as theirs.
Edmonton 36, Winnipeg 23
Saskatchewan 3-0 (+2) @ Calgary 2-1 (-2)
The one game I find it most difficult to be objective about.
There's only one way to approach this: the Riders owned Calgary last year. Owned. The Stamps mustered one near-perfect game at home, and it earned them a tie. Add this to the green barbarian horde effect at McMahon, and this is an uncomfortable game.
Here's the funny thing: on paper, this actually doesn't seem like a mismatch at all. The Stamps are an above-average team. But their two key weaknesses, offensive line and defensive halfback, are serious ones. The offensive line collapsed last week in Toronto, scaring the Frank back into Hank. The Riders aren't as dominant as last year along the line, but they're still very good - and smart enough to have watched a LOT of tape from last week.
Similarly, the Stamps' lopsided secondary (strong wherever Brandon Browner is, suspect everywhere else) may get eaten alive by Saskatchewan's receiving corps, the best in the CFL.
Sickens me to say it, but this won't end well for the heroes in red.
Saskatchewan 30, Calgary 21
Week Three Picks 'n' Results
So this is what I had for last week. The week before I went 2-2, making me 5-3 for the year.
Calgary over Toronto (nope), Hamilton over Winnipeg (yup), Montreal over BC (yup), Saskatchewan over BC (yup).
That's 3-1 for week three, 8-4 for the year. Computer crashes suck. Avoid them.
Calgary over Toronto (nope), Hamilton over Winnipeg (yup), Montreal over BC (yup), Saskatchewan over BC (yup).
That's 3-1 for week three, 8-4 for the year. Computer crashes suck. Avoid them.
Crash
Computer crashed. Lost a week or two. Will you believe me if I get the picks (done ahead of time, honest!) up after the games? No? Too bad, I'm doing it anyway.
Friday, July 9, 2010
Week Two Picks
Last week I went 2-2, guessing right on Calgary over Toronto and Saskatchewan over Montreal, missing on Hamilton/Winnipeg and BC/Edmonton. Let's aim for better, shall we?
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Toronto (+11.5) @ Winnipeg (-11.5)
Ten days ago, this seemed a little more even. Not "even," mind you, but "a little more even." Toronto is about where we expected - good defence, semi-pro offence. Winnipeg surprised, throttling Hamilton last week from start to finish, a team I thought was simply better. One game doesn't always mean much, but here's the thing: we always knew the Bombers were better than the Argos - now we're surprised just how much better.
This won't be the shellacking many predict - Kevin Eiben will contain Fred Reid's damage, and with Adriano Belli back from suspension, Buck Pierce simply won't have as much time; the Argos did a fine job containing Henry Burris last week. The Bombers take a surprisingly close game - again, I wouldn't give Toronto 11.5 points.
Winnipeg 23, Toronto 15
Calgary (+2) @ Hamilton (-2)
Another game most were predicting differently last week. Hamilton is this year's chique pick, some suggesting they could even challenge Montreal's reign over the East, while Calgary is this year's pick to disappoint - I was shocked how many people picked them to finish fourth in the West.
As usual with chique picks, there was some (hopeful?) exaggeration. Hamilton probably isn't as good as they seemed, and Calgary is (again, probably) on par with BC and Edmonton. Hamilton is the slight favourite here, despite the league's worst performance last week. They somehow lost by 20, despite two return touchdowns from Marcus Thigpen - that's bad. 15 points on offence isn't going to cut it.
Calgary's offence was frustrated last week as well, but moved the ball well - finishing drives was an issue. The Stamps were the league's best red zone team last year, so should improve there. (Granted, missing Jeremaine Copeland hurts.)
Can Calgary's still-suspect pass defence continue to hold up against a veteran CFL quarterback with recognizable receivers? Or will Kevin Glenn deliver another subpar performance and ignite a controversy? It's impossible to be unbiased about the Stamps, but I think the tea leaves are promising here. Calgary in a high-scoring, tight game.
Calgary 39, Hamilton 35
Saskatchewan (+2) @ BC (-2)
On the face of it, the most ludicrous line of the week - you probably won't see the Riders given points more than a handful of times of this year. But this game might be something of a perfect storm.
The Lions are playing under the Vancouver sunshine for the first time since the 80s, and in front of a sellout crowd - also a novelty. Instead of a ho-hum half-full BC Place - where crowd noise goes to die - the team is fired up.
The Riders are used to atmosphere (duh) but this game has every appearance of a classic trap game. They undoubtedly had their gaze fixed on week one, a chance to avenge the most heartbreaking Grey Cup loss imaginable in front of their home crowd - and did so in the most dramatic fashion. Can they stay up and focused this week? I realize these guys are professionals - and very, very good - but I just don't see how.
BC looked dominant last week, dismantling a fragile Eskimos team despite a very average performance from Casey Printers. Jamal Robertson won't find as many holes this week, so Printers will need to make a few plays. Hard to tell based on just one week, but BC's pass rush looks awesome (a west coast staple) yet again.
The Riders enter the game red hot on offence and decent on defence - they gave up a lot of points, but Montreal is better than BC, and the Riders got better as the game went on. Will it be enough to overcome the intangibles this week? Very possibly. But I'm guessing no.
Do I think Saskatchewan is the superior team? Yes. I just don't think they'll win this one. Call it an anomaly if you want.
BC 33, Saskatchewan 23
Montreal (-6) @ Edmonton (+6)
Six points?
That's all? An unconverted touchdown?
It's as if the oddsmakers are taking into account Edmonton's rich history of football prowess, rather than recent performances. Montreal is more than a touchdown better than Edmonton this year, period, full stop.
Why am I so confident? The way Edmonton lost against BC. Not only was their offensive line embarrassingly bad - and the Als can bring the pass rush too - but after the game, their coaches openly questioned their mental and emotional state. After a good start, one turnover seemed to deflate the entire team, and they never recovered. They're like a boxer with a glass jaw; one shot in the mouth and they start questioning everything.
Arkee Whitlock had a decent performance, and the Eskimos' receivers - especially if Kelly Campbell is good to go after a painful injury - can do a lot of damage. But Ricky Ray was getting killed all game, and Montreal will be releasing the hounds on each and every play. That can backfire - and probably will at least once - but Ray still has to survive another 16 games after this one.
The Esks' defence, questioned by many before the season, held up reasonably well on the pass, but Jamal Robertson made it to the secondary untouched far too often. They can expect a big dose of Avon Cobourne, who's just as dangerous.
Montreal in a walk.
Montreal 40, Edmonton 23
As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark.
Toronto (+11.5) @ Winnipeg (-11.5)
Ten days ago, this seemed a little more even. Not "even," mind you, but "a little more even." Toronto is about where we expected - good defence, semi-pro offence. Winnipeg surprised, throttling Hamilton last week from start to finish, a team I thought was simply better. One game doesn't always mean much, but here's the thing: we always knew the Bombers were better than the Argos - now we're surprised just how much better.
This won't be the shellacking many predict - Kevin Eiben will contain Fred Reid's damage, and with Adriano Belli back from suspension, Buck Pierce simply won't have as much time; the Argos did a fine job containing Henry Burris last week. The Bombers take a surprisingly close game - again, I wouldn't give Toronto 11.5 points.
Winnipeg 23, Toronto 15
Calgary (+2) @ Hamilton (-2)
Another game most were predicting differently last week. Hamilton is this year's chique pick, some suggesting they could even challenge Montreal's reign over the East, while Calgary is this year's pick to disappoint - I was shocked how many people picked them to finish fourth in the West.
As usual with chique picks, there was some (hopeful?) exaggeration. Hamilton probably isn't as good as they seemed, and Calgary is (again, probably) on par with BC and Edmonton. Hamilton is the slight favourite here, despite the league's worst performance last week. They somehow lost by 20, despite two return touchdowns from Marcus Thigpen - that's bad. 15 points on offence isn't going to cut it.
Calgary's offence was frustrated last week as well, but moved the ball well - finishing drives was an issue. The Stamps were the league's best red zone team last year, so should improve there. (Granted, missing Jeremaine Copeland hurts.)
Can Calgary's still-suspect pass defence continue to hold up against a veteran CFL quarterback with recognizable receivers? Or will Kevin Glenn deliver another subpar performance and ignite a controversy? It's impossible to be unbiased about the Stamps, but I think the tea leaves are promising here. Calgary in a high-scoring, tight game.
Calgary 39, Hamilton 35
Saskatchewan (+2) @ BC (-2)
On the face of it, the most ludicrous line of the week - you probably won't see the Riders given points more than a handful of times of this year. But this game might be something of a perfect storm.
The Lions are playing under the Vancouver sunshine for the first time since the 80s, and in front of a sellout crowd - also a novelty. Instead of a ho-hum half-full BC Place - where crowd noise goes to die - the team is fired up.
The Riders are used to atmosphere (duh) but this game has every appearance of a classic trap game. They undoubtedly had their gaze fixed on week one, a chance to avenge the most heartbreaking Grey Cup loss imaginable in front of their home crowd - and did so in the most dramatic fashion. Can they stay up and focused this week? I realize these guys are professionals - and very, very good - but I just don't see how.
BC looked dominant last week, dismantling a fragile Eskimos team despite a very average performance from Casey Printers. Jamal Robertson won't find as many holes this week, so Printers will need to make a few plays. Hard to tell based on just one week, but BC's pass rush looks awesome (a west coast staple) yet again.
The Riders enter the game red hot on offence and decent on defence - they gave up a lot of points, but Montreal is better than BC, and the Riders got better as the game went on. Will it be enough to overcome the intangibles this week? Very possibly. But I'm guessing no.
Do I think Saskatchewan is the superior team? Yes. I just don't think they'll win this one. Call it an anomaly if you want.
BC 33, Saskatchewan 23
Montreal (-6) @ Edmonton (+6)
Six points?
That's all? An unconverted touchdown?
It's as if the oddsmakers are taking into account Edmonton's rich history of football prowess, rather than recent performances. Montreal is more than a touchdown better than Edmonton this year, period, full stop.
Why am I so confident? The way Edmonton lost against BC. Not only was their offensive line embarrassingly bad - and the Als can bring the pass rush too - but after the game, their coaches openly questioned their mental and emotional state. After a good start, one turnover seemed to deflate the entire team, and they never recovered. They're like a boxer with a glass jaw; one shot in the mouth and they start questioning everything.
Arkee Whitlock had a decent performance, and the Eskimos' receivers - especially if Kelly Campbell is good to go after a painful injury - can do a lot of damage. But Ricky Ray was getting killed all game, and Montreal will be releasing the hounds on each and every play. That can backfire - and probably will at least once - but Ray still has to survive another 16 games after this one.
The Esks' defence, questioned by many before the season, held up reasonably well on the pass, but Jamal Robertson made it to the secondary untouched far too often. They can expect a big dose of Avon Cobourne, who's just as dangerous.
Montreal in a walk.
Montreal 40, Edmonton 23
Monday, July 5, 2010
Week One Thoughts
BC 25, Edmonton 10
- Team position I had the worst preseason read on: Edmonton's offensive line. I thought they'd be about average...alas. They were horrible. Wojt, Koch, and Kabongo - the starting interior - were bullfighting. Ole!
- Still not sold on Casey Printers. His numbers were decent (20/34, 218 yards, no touchdowns, no picks) but never managed to sustain momentum. This game should have been an absolute blowout.
- Sometimes hard to tell from one game, but either Jamal Robertson is great, or Edmonton has serious tackling issues. Might be a combination.
- Hopefully Kelly Campbell works the kinks out. Poor dude looked like he was in a *lot* of pain. The Esks need his playmaking ability in the worst way.
Calgary 30, Toronto 16
- Believe it or not, this was a decent debut for Cleo Lemon. He didn't embarrass himself, which was a real danger. Still, after Dalton Bell made a case for the job in preseason, one has to wonder how he would've done. The Argos' D is good, but they won't keep them in every game without any help on offence.
- Less than 30,000 in the stands in Calgary. A shame.
- Not exactly a scintillating game. Were I not a Stamps geek, I probably would've switched to Smackdown or something. Or, you know...gone outside or something crazy like that.
- He's not getting much attention so far, but it's a huge relief to see Mike Labinjo looking slim and energized. As he goes, so does Calgary's defence. This is significant.
- The Stamps' retooled defence looked good, but it's awfully hard to gauge against Toronto. I'll withhold comment until next week.
Winnipeg 49, Hamilton 29
- Hamilton: what happened, man? You're this year's chique pick.
- No really: what happened?
- Fred Reid might be the CFL's most overlooked impact player. Second in league rushing last year, he ran away from a lot of embarrassed-looking TiCats.
- Uh oh...is there a QB controversy brewing in Hamilton? Kevin Glenn just wasn't very good. Quinton Porter is the future. When does the future become now?
- Hard not to be happy for Buck Pierce. He's the third-best looking quarterback in the league right now.
Saskatchewan 54, Montreal 51
- It really needs and deserves to be said: wow. This was a game for the ages.
- The Riders actually had two different too many men calls in this game. That's either funny or terrifying, depending on which colour you wear to games. Someone may lose a job if this happens again.
- Saskatchewan actually had a very slow start on offence, unable to do anything other than pass to Weston Dressler. Obviously they got untracked.
- Montreal's defence was completely gassed midway through the fourth quarter. Including overtime, I believe the Riders scored touchdowns on five of their last six possessions - and you never had the sense there was even a chance they'd fail to score in OT. Yes, it was hot in Regina, but the Als might be concerned about conditioning.
- Team position I had the worst preseason read on: Edmonton's offensive line. I thought they'd be about average...alas. They were horrible. Wojt, Koch, and Kabongo - the starting interior - were bullfighting. Ole!
- Still not sold on Casey Printers. His numbers were decent (20/34, 218 yards, no touchdowns, no picks) but never managed to sustain momentum. This game should have been an absolute blowout.
- Sometimes hard to tell from one game, but either Jamal Robertson is great, or Edmonton has serious tackling issues. Might be a combination.
- Hopefully Kelly Campbell works the kinks out. Poor dude looked like he was in a *lot* of pain. The Esks need his playmaking ability in the worst way.
Calgary 30, Toronto 16
- Believe it or not, this was a decent debut for Cleo Lemon. He didn't embarrass himself, which was a real danger. Still, after Dalton Bell made a case for the job in preseason, one has to wonder how he would've done. The Argos' D is good, but they won't keep them in every game without any help on offence.
- Less than 30,000 in the stands in Calgary. A shame.
- Not exactly a scintillating game. Were I not a Stamps geek, I probably would've switched to Smackdown or something. Or, you know...gone outside or something crazy like that.
- He's not getting much attention so far, but it's a huge relief to see Mike Labinjo looking slim and energized. As he goes, so does Calgary's defence. This is significant.
- The Stamps' retooled defence looked good, but it's awfully hard to gauge against Toronto. I'll withhold comment until next week.
Winnipeg 49, Hamilton 29
- Hamilton: what happened, man? You're this year's chique pick.
- No really: what happened?
- Fred Reid might be the CFL's most overlooked impact player. Second in league rushing last year, he ran away from a lot of embarrassed-looking TiCats.
- Uh oh...is there a QB controversy brewing in Hamilton? Kevin Glenn just wasn't very good. Quinton Porter is the future. When does the future become now?
- Hard not to be happy for Buck Pierce. He's the third-best looking quarterback in the league right now.
Saskatchewan 54, Montreal 51
- It really needs and deserves to be said: wow. This was a game for the ages.
- The Riders actually had two different too many men calls in this game. That's either funny or terrifying, depending on which colour you wear to games. Someone may lose a job if this happens again.
- Saskatchewan actually had a very slow start on offence, unable to do anything other than pass to Weston Dressler. Obviously they got untracked.
- Montreal's defence was completely gassed midway through the fourth quarter. Including overtime, I believe the Riders scored touchdowns on five of their last six possessions - and you never had the sense there was even a chance they'd fail to score in OT. Yes, it was hot in Regina, but the Als might be concerned about conditioning.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Instant Reaction: Stamps 30, Argos 16
- Not to say "I told you so," but that went pretty much as expected. The Argos were unable to put much of anything together on offence, but their defence did an amazing job of keeping the Stamps in check.
- Rob Maver looked decent, but missed the one long-ish kick. My fears are not entirely assuaged.
- The Stamps' new o-line was adequate - but I got the feeling Hufnagel was scheming to protect them. Burris likes to move, but there seemed to be a lot more bootlegs and rollouts than usual - quite often with a defender in his face. If the line needs smoke and mirrors, Burris will be eaten alive this year.
- With his helmet on, Cleo Lemon looks rather extraordinarily like Kerry Joseph.
- Lemon's CFL debut probably earns about a C. He certainly didn't lose the game by himself, but neither did he do a lot to impress. He made a few questionable decisions, and probably got away with grounding more than once. It doesn't help that the Argos' receiving corps is putrid. There's Jeremaine Copeland (covered like glue all night) and a bunch of refugees. If someone doesn't emerge - hopefully one or two someones - this team will be BAD. Brandon Rideau may be a candidate, but he dropped a crucial (and perfect) pass in the second half, after Lemon was creamed for his efforts.
- Duane Forde kept asking, and there's no good answer: why on Earth don't the Argos run more? On paper, they have a decent line, and Cory Boyd looks competent. Ditto short passes to Andre Durie.
- Hopefully it's just early-season rust that made Job Cornish and Deon Murphy lose two bad fumbles.
- Henry Burris will probably take some criticism for this game, but I actually liked what he did: he didn't force the ball, and took what the Argos gave him - short, underneath stuff. He had a very Ricky Ray-like outing. You can tell he's trying to spread the ball around - wonder if that will continue when Ken-Yon Rambo comes back.
- It's impossible to judge, based on the woefulness of the Argos' passing game, but the Stamps's retooled secondary held up well. Real tests against real teams with real CFL quarterbacks and receivers begin next week. For this squad, it was almost like a third preseason game.
- Rob Maver looked decent, but missed the one long-ish kick. My fears are not entirely assuaged.
- The Stamps' new o-line was adequate - but I got the feeling Hufnagel was scheming to protect them. Burris likes to move, but there seemed to be a lot more bootlegs and rollouts than usual - quite often with a defender in his face. If the line needs smoke and mirrors, Burris will be eaten alive this year.
- With his helmet on, Cleo Lemon looks rather extraordinarily like Kerry Joseph.
- Lemon's CFL debut probably earns about a C. He certainly didn't lose the game by himself, but neither did he do a lot to impress. He made a few questionable decisions, and probably got away with grounding more than once. It doesn't help that the Argos' receiving corps is putrid. There's Jeremaine Copeland (covered like glue all night) and a bunch of refugees. If someone doesn't emerge - hopefully one or two someones - this team will be BAD. Brandon Rideau may be a candidate, but he dropped a crucial (and perfect) pass in the second half, after Lemon was creamed for his efforts.
- Duane Forde kept asking, and there's no good answer: why on Earth don't the Argos run more? On paper, they have a decent line, and Cory Boyd looks competent. Ditto short passes to Andre Durie.
- Hopefully it's just early-season rust that made Job Cornish and Deon Murphy lose two bad fumbles.
- Henry Burris will probably take some criticism for this game, but I actually liked what he did: he didn't force the ball, and took what the Argos gave him - short, underneath stuff. He had a very Ricky Ray-like outing. You can tell he's trying to spread the ball around - wonder if that will continue when Ken-Yon Rambo comes back.
- It's impossible to judge, based on the woefulness of the Argos' passing game, but the Stamps's retooled secondary held up well. Real tests against real teams with real CFL quarterbacks and receivers begin next week. For this squad, it was almost like a third preseason game.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Week One Predictions
I know - division previews AND week one predictions, all in one day. It's a lot of reading. Both of my readers are on overload right now. Mea culpa.
(all odds courtesy Oddshark)
Montreal (-3) @ Saskatchewan (+3)
You know the Riders have been salivating over this since the schedule was announced - vengeance! Well, sort of. You have to expect Saskatchewan will come out like gangbusters, but there's no better veteran core in the league than Montreal. They can handle it. The Roughriders look to be the class of the league, but if this were a best of seven, you'd need the full seven games.
Saskatchewan 36, Montreal 32
Toronto (+13.5) @ Calgary (-13.5)
On paper, easily the week's biggest mismatch - hence the astronomical line. Toronto better get used to it, especially against western teams and/or on the road. The Argos need time to gel, especially QB Cleo Lemon. Their defence will keep things respectable, though, and their defensive line will pose a stiff test for Calgary's new o-line. I wouldn't give them 13.5 points, put it that way. I have to think turnovers will play a significant role - if Lemon starts throwing picks, this could get ugly.
Calgary 30, Toronto 19
Hamilton (-3) @ Winnipeg (+3)
Hamilton is probably superior, but Winnipeg will be tough at home, and Buck Pierce isn't hurt. Yet. Pierce should give Winnipeg a puncher's chance, and as talented as the TiCats look, they still have the whiff of mistake-prone about them. The Bombers know this is the kind of game they need to win to have any shot at the playoffs this year - but I just think the Tiger-Cats are better across the board.
Hamilton 24, Winnipeg 16
BC (+4) @ Edmonton (-4)
As close to a pick'em as you'll get, despite the line. These teams seem evenly matched; the Lions' d will have its hands full with Ricky Ray, Kelly Campbell, and Arkee Whitlock - but I think the game will come down almost entirely on how Casey Printers performs. If he's brilliant, the Lions might win in a walk. If he's inconsistent and makes a few mistakes - and that's a safer bet - the Eskimos should be able to take advantage.
Edmonton 40, BC 33
(all odds courtesy Oddshark)
Montreal (-3) @ Saskatchewan (+3)
You know the Riders have been salivating over this since the schedule was announced - vengeance! Well, sort of. You have to expect Saskatchewan will come out like gangbusters, but there's no better veteran core in the league than Montreal. They can handle it. The Roughriders look to be the class of the league, but if this were a best of seven, you'd need the full seven games.
Saskatchewan 36, Montreal 32
Toronto (+13.5) @ Calgary (-13.5)
On paper, easily the week's biggest mismatch - hence the astronomical line. Toronto better get used to it, especially against western teams and/or on the road. The Argos need time to gel, especially QB Cleo Lemon. Their defence will keep things respectable, though, and their defensive line will pose a stiff test for Calgary's new o-line. I wouldn't give them 13.5 points, put it that way. I have to think turnovers will play a significant role - if Lemon starts throwing picks, this could get ugly.
Calgary 30, Toronto 19
Hamilton (-3) @ Winnipeg (+3)
Hamilton is probably superior, but Winnipeg will be tough at home, and Buck Pierce isn't hurt. Yet. Pierce should give Winnipeg a puncher's chance, and as talented as the TiCats look, they still have the whiff of mistake-prone about them. The Bombers know this is the kind of game they need to win to have any shot at the playoffs this year - but I just think the Tiger-Cats are better across the board.
Hamilton 24, Winnipeg 16
BC (+4) @ Edmonton (-4)
As close to a pick'em as you'll get, despite the line. These teams seem evenly matched; the Lions' d will have its hands full with Ricky Ray, Kelly Campbell, and Arkee Whitlock - but I think the game will come down almost entirely on how Casey Printers performs. If he's brilliant, the Lions might win in a walk. If he's inconsistent and makes a few mistakes - and that's a safer bet - the Eskimos should be able to take advantage.
Edmonton 40, BC 33
CFL West Preview
West Division
1- Saskatchewan Roughriders
Predicted Record: 13-5
One has to wonder how they will react.
After suffering one of the most devastating losses in history - blowing a huge halftime lead, only to seemingly win on the last play, but taking a stupid penalty on losing on the do-over - the Riders will either be motivated or crushed. It's hard to imagine any middle ground.
Unfortunately for the West, I have to believe they'll be motivated. This is, simply, the league's best and most balanced attack. There are precious few elite players, but absolutely zero weaknesses, with plenty of depth and consistency, and skill at every position. It's a case of having a team full of 8s, but no 10s or 4s. The passing game is solid and reliable, as Darian Durant has emerged into, perhaps, the next great CFL quarterback. He isn't flashy - casual fans would be forgiven for picking him last among his divisional rivals - but delivers when it matters and doesn't make many mistakes. His receiving corps has excellent medium (Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg) and deep threats (Weston Dressler, Prechae Rodriguez.) The running game is in excellent hands with Wes Cates.
The defence suffered some offseason losses, most significantly on the defensive line. While the Riders have filled the gaps as well as possible, there's almost no way it will be as effective. It's still a solid unit, but Saskatchewan may have to outgun a few opponents.
With their offence, though, that shouldn't be a problem.
2- Edmonton Eskimos
Predicted Record: 11-7
Perhaps the most difficult team to get a solid read on, Edmonton has fielded similar teams for several years now: great passing game, weak or no running game, and an unreliable defence. Ricky Ray consistently puts up great numbers moving the Eskimos across the field, but that has somehow not translated into points. Is he overrated? A sizable contingent in Edmonton seem to think so, advocating for solid backup Jason Maas.
Ray's not the problem and never has been. Under Danny Maciocia, the Esks were content with a dink-dunk passing attack, which never resulted in two-and-outs, but equally failed to deliver touchdowns; it wasn't uncommon for Ray to throw for 350 yards and team only score 20 points.
Last season, that started to change. The team stuck with running back Arkee Whitlock despite a truly horrifying bout of dropsies (he lost at least one game on his own), a risky but ultimately wise investment. Whitlock single-handedly gave Edmonton another dimension on the attack, making them far more difficult to defend.
The receiving corps is decent, especially Fred Stamps and Kelly Campbell. Again, it suffers by comparison to the units in the West - it's almost certainly the weakest, without actually being a weakness.
The defence is another question mark, with more than half of last year's squad replaced. Most observers think it will take at least a year to gel, but I (sadly) liked what Maciocia did - especially Javier Glatt and Chris Thompson, from BC and Hamilton, respectively.
Edmonton is the Winnipeg of the West. Could be formidable. Could be very, very bad.
3- Calgary Stampeders
Predicted Record: 9-9
My boys! It's tough to see how the Stamps will be as good as last year's solid (if inconsistent) team. No one in the CFL suffered more significant losses, from 60% of the offensive line (all Canadians), the best kicker in the league, and offensive coordinator George Cortez. Add to that a suspect pass defence and the level of competition in the west, and things actually look kinda grim.
Now then. That's the bad news. The good news is, this is still a very good team that should be able to compete with anybody. The offence is blessed with weapons, from Ken-Yon Rambo and Nik Lewis at receiver, the best big-play quarterback in the league in Henry Burris, and future Hall of Fame running back Joffrey Reynolds. If the makeshift line can make room for Reynolds and give Burris time, the Stampeders have as good an offence as anyone. That's a big if, though.
The defence is a worry. The Stamps have been unable to find consistent help at defensive halfback for years now, and don't look as though they've solved the problem yet. The defensive line is wildly inconsistent; sometimes dominant, sometimes swiss cheese. The linebackers are solid.
Special teams - and especially the kicking game - have been a strength in Calgary for years. They may still be, as the team thinks highly of rookie kicker Rob Maver. But it's almost impossible he'll be as reliable or clutch as Sandro DeAngelis.
This team is too talented to flame out, but probably doesn't have the horses (no pun intended) to win the division.
4- BC Lions
Predicted Record: 6-12
There's a lot of buzz in Vancouver this year. Popular quarterback Casey Printers has returned from exile, and the team is playing outdoors for the first time in decades.
Printers is a worry. A huge success in his last stint in BC, he's reeked of failure ever since, from Kansas City to Hamilton, even to a 1-4 stretch late last season. He's as talented as any quarterback in the league who's ever played, but seems to have trouble putting it all together. He also has a maddening tendency to do everything himself, like a young Henry Burris.
In the CFL, it's hard to overcome spotty quarterback play - especially in this division. The margin of error is razor-thin. The Lions have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball - far too much to be written off. If Printers rekindles his magic with a full training camp under Wally Buono, this team could threaten. But that doesn't seem to be his career arc at the moment.
1- Saskatchewan Roughriders
Predicted Record: 13-5
One has to wonder how they will react.
After suffering one of the most devastating losses in history - blowing a huge halftime lead, only to seemingly win on the last play, but taking a stupid penalty on losing on the do-over - the Riders will either be motivated or crushed. It's hard to imagine any middle ground.
Unfortunately for the West, I have to believe they'll be motivated. This is, simply, the league's best and most balanced attack. There are precious few elite players, but absolutely zero weaknesses, with plenty of depth and consistency, and skill at every position. It's a case of having a team full of 8s, but no 10s or 4s. The passing game is solid and reliable, as Darian Durant has emerged into, perhaps, the next great CFL quarterback. He isn't flashy - casual fans would be forgiven for picking him last among his divisional rivals - but delivers when it matters and doesn't make many mistakes. His receiving corps has excellent medium (Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg) and deep threats (Weston Dressler, Prechae Rodriguez.) The running game is in excellent hands with Wes Cates.
The defence suffered some offseason losses, most significantly on the defensive line. While the Riders have filled the gaps as well as possible, there's almost no way it will be as effective. It's still a solid unit, but Saskatchewan may have to outgun a few opponents.
With their offence, though, that shouldn't be a problem.
2- Edmonton Eskimos
Predicted Record: 11-7
Perhaps the most difficult team to get a solid read on, Edmonton has fielded similar teams for several years now: great passing game, weak or no running game, and an unreliable defence. Ricky Ray consistently puts up great numbers moving the Eskimos across the field, but that has somehow not translated into points. Is he overrated? A sizable contingent in Edmonton seem to think so, advocating for solid backup Jason Maas.
Ray's not the problem and never has been. Under Danny Maciocia, the Esks were content with a dink-dunk passing attack, which never resulted in two-and-outs, but equally failed to deliver touchdowns; it wasn't uncommon for Ray to throw for 350 yards and team only score 20 points.
Last season, that started to change. The team stuck with running back Arkee Whitlock despite a truly horrifying bout of dropsies (he lost at least one game on his own), a risky but ultimately wise investment. Whitlock single-handedly gave Edmonton another dimension on the attack, making them far more difficult to defend.
The receiving corps is decent, especially Fred Stamps and Kelly Campbell. Again, it suffers by comparison to the units in the West - it's almost certainly the weakest, without actually being a weakness.
The defence is another question mark, with more than half of last year's squad replaced. Most observers think it will take at least a year to gel, but I (sadly) liked what Maciocia did - especially Javier Glatt and Chris Thompson, from BC and Hamilton, respectively.
Edmonton is the Winnipeg of the West. Could be formidable. Could be very, very bad.
3- Calgary Stampeders
Predicted Record: 9-9
My boys! It's tough to see how the Stamps will be as good as last year's solid (if inconsistent) team. No one in the CFL suffered more significant losses, from 60% of the offensive line (all Canadians), the best kicker in the league, and offensive coordinator George Cortez. Add to that a suspect pass defence and the level of competition in the west, and things actually look kinda grim.
Now then. That's the bad news. The good news is, this is still a very good team that should be able to compete with anybody. The offence is blessed with weapons, from Ken-Yon Rambo and Nik Lewis at receiver, the best big-play quarterback in the league in Henry Burris, and future Hall of Fame running back Joffrey Reynolds. If the makeshift line can make room for Reynolds and give Burris time, the Stampeders have as good an offence as anyone. That's a big if, though.
The defence is a worry. The Stamps have been unable to find consistent help at defensive halfback for years now, and don't look as though they've solved the problem yet. The defensive line is wildly inconsistent; sometimes dominant, sometimes swiss cheese. The linebackers are solid.
Special teams - and especially the kicking game - have been a strength in Calgary for years. They may still be, as the team thinks highly of rookie kicker Rob Maver. But it's almost impossible he'll be as reliable or clutch as Sandro DeAngelis.
This team is too talented to flame out, but probably doesn't have the horses (no pun intended) to win the division.
4- BC Lions
Predicted Record: 6-12
There's a lot of buzz in Vancouver this year. Popular quarterback Casey Printers has returned from exile, and the team is playing outdoors for the first time in decades.
Printers is a worry. A huge success in his last stint in BC, he's reeked of failure ever since, from Kansas City to Hamilton, even to a 1-4 stretch late last season. He's as talented as any quarterback in the league who's ever played, but seems to have trouble putting it all together. He also has a maddening tendency to do everything himself, like a young Henry Burris.
In the CFL, it's hard to overcome spotty quarterback play - especially in this division. The margin of error is razor-thin. The Lions have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball - far too much to be written off. If Printers rekindles his magic with a full training camp under Wally Buono, this team could threaten. But that doesn't seem to be his career arc at the moment.
CFL East Preview
1- Montreal Alouettes
Predicted Record: 11-7
Since about 2005, each Montreal Alouettes season preview has ended "...but eventually, Calvillo, Cahoon, and crew will start to slow down." It hasn't happened.
The Alouettes have a lot going for them; they're arguably the league's best-run franchise, and have happily feasted on weaklings in the East. They deny it, but this has cost them in championships; last year aside, they simply haven't been able to find the next gear when it counts, because it's seldom necessary.
The Als return the vast majority of their key players from last year's championship team, with Centre Bryan Chiu the lone exception. Barring injury or freakish bad luck, there's no reason to assume Montreal's hegemony over the east won't last another season. Hamilton may push them - certainly more than last year's five-game cushion - but top to bottom, it's hard to see any weaknesses on this team.
2- Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Predicted Record: 10-8
This year's sexy pick, the Tiger-Cats have a lethal combination: first, a reasonably stout defence, including the league's most underrated linebacking corps. Second, an balanced offence with a lot of weapons, not least a dominant ground game and big-play receivers. Third, they've added the best kicker in league history in Sandro DeAngelis, worth as many as two victories on his own.
One problem: they're still not quite sure who their quarterback is. They'd like it to be Quinton Porter, but he's been conclusively outplayed by journeyman Kevin Glenn. Glenn is a classic 'tweener: a second-tier starter, or a top-flite backup. Still, with this offence, Glenn can probably do enough damage to worry the Montreals and Saskatchewans of the world.
3- Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Predicted Record: 6-12
One thing's for sure: the press conferences will be significantly less entertaining. What is it with Winnipeg and clueless but soundbite-friendly coaches? Once every 15 years, they hire a Jeff Reinebold or Mike Kelly, and fall to pieces while leading the league in "he said WHATs"
The Bombers have the pieces of a decent team, but suffered through the worst quarterbacking in the league last year - Toronto was so bad it didn't even count. When retread Michael Bishop was even average, they were in almost every game, but "average" seemed to be Bishop's ceiling. (Which was, in turn, a lot better than presumptive starter Stefan LeFors, whowas deported retired.)
This year's QB situation is a classic gamble: a much higher ceiling, but much greater risk. Buck Pierce will enter the season behind centre, but is a documented concussion risk and almost certainly won't survive all 18 games. Behind him are Steven Jyles, an intriguing if untested option, and a field of green.
There probably isn't a team with a greater gulf between best- and worst-case scenarios. The defence and special teams are adequate, but won't win any games on their own. If Pierce can stay healthy, he's an accurate, gutsy leader, capable of surprising even the league's heavyweights. If he misses a lot of time - and those are at least even odds - this team may struggle to win more than a handful of games.
4- Toronto Argonauts
Predicted Record: 5-13
The CFL's only real trouble spot - sadly both off and on the field - the Argos will almost certainly be better than last year. It would be genuinely difficult for professional players to be worse.
Let's start with the positives: the defence, as usual in Toronto, is stout. The defensive line usually gets ignored (occupational hazard on a horrid team) but is actually among the league's better units. The linebackers and secondary are better than average.
That's about it.
The offence underwent an almost-total overhaul. Again, it would be hard to match last year's incompetence, but there is precious little experience anywhere. The team did well to add slotback Jeremaine Copeland from Calgary (which looks like a steal with P.K. Sam hurt yet again), both for a reliable target and locker room sensei. With Calgary's receivers dropping like flies, Copeland dragged his team almost single-handedly to several key divisional wins - he may have been superceded by Nik Lewis and Ken-Yon Rambo, but he's still an elite player.
Who's going to get him the ball? Toronto's three quarterbacks have exactly zero CFL experience, aside from backup Dalton Bell's brief apprenticeship in Regina. Bell was the best performer in preseason, but the starting assignment still went to NFL veteran Cleo Lemon. He'll be watched very carefully by new coach Jim Barker, but you have to imagine there will be a fairly long leash.
The club also lost its top runner in Jamal Richardson to BC, clearing space for another rookie in Cory Boyd. He's looked promising in preseason.
As better writers than I have put it, the Argos could be significantly better than last year while winning fewer games. Barring a complete collapse by Winnipeg and at least one Western team, the playoffs seem out of reach for now.
Predicted Record: 11-7
Since about 2005, each Montreal Alouettes season preview has ended "...but eventually, Calvillo, Cahoon, and crew will start to slow down." It hasn't happened.
The Alouettes have a lot going for them; they're arguably the league's best-run franchise, and have happily feasted on weaklings in the East. They deny it, but this has cost them in championships; last year aside, they simply haven't been able to find the next gear when it counts, because it's seldom necessary.
The Als return the vast majority of their key players from last year's championship team, with Centre Bryan Chiu the lone exception. Barring injury or freakish bad luck, there's no reason to assume Montreal's hegemony over the east won't last another season. Hamilton may push them - certainly more than last year's five-game cushion - but top to bottom, it's hard to see any weaknesses on this team.
2- Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Predicted Record: 10-8
This year's sexy pick, the Tiger-Cats have a lethal combination: first, a reasonably stout defence, including the league's most underrated linebacking corps. Second, an balanced offence with a lot of weapons, not least a dominant ground game and big-play receivers. Third, they've added the best kicker in league history in Sandro DeAngelis, worth as many as two victories on his own.
One problem: they're still not quite sure who their quarterback is. They'd like it to be Quinton Porter, but he's been conclusively outplayed by journeyman Kevin Glenn. Glenn is a classic 'tweener: a second-tier starter, or a top-flite backup. Still, with this offence, Glenn can probably do enough damage to worry the Montreals and Saskatchewans of the world.
3- Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Predicted Record: 6-12
One thing's for sure: the press conferences will be significantly less entertaining. What is it with Winnipeg and clueless but soundbite-friendly coaches? Once every 15 years, they hire a Jeff Reinebold or Mike Kelly, and fall to pieces while leading the league in "he said WHATs"
The Bombers have the pieces of a decent team, but suffered through the worst quarterbacking in the league last year - Toronto was so bad it didn't even count. When retread Michael Bishop was even average, they were in almost every game, but "average" seemed to be Bishop's ceiling. (Which was, in turn, a lot better than presumptive starter Stefan LeFors, who
This year's QB situation is a classic gamble: a much higher ceiling, but much greater risk. Buck Pierce will enter the season behind centre, but is a documented concussion risk and almost certainly won't survive all 18 games. Behind him are Steven Jyles, an intriguing if untested option, and a field of green.
There probably isn't a team with a greater gulf between best- and worst-case scenarios. The defence and special teams are adequate, but won't win any games on their own. If Pierce can stay healthy, he's an accurate, gutsy leader, capable of surprising even the league's heavyweights. If he misses a lot of time - and those are at least even odds - this team may struggle to win more than a handful of games.
4- Toronto Argonauts
Predicted Record: 5-13
The CFL's only real trouble spot - sadly both off and on the field - the Argos will almost certainly be better than last year. It would be genuinely difficult for professional players to be worse.
Let's start with the positives: the defence, as usual in Toronto, is stout. The defensive line usually gets ignored (occupational hazard on a horrid team) but is actually among the league's better units. The linebackers and secondary are better than average.
That's about it.
The offence underwent an almost-total overhaul. Again, it would be hard to match last year's incompetence, but there is precious little experience anywhere. The team did well to add slotback Jeremaine Copeland from Calgary (which looks like a steal with P.K. Sam hurt yet again), both for a reliable target and locker room sensei. With Calgary's receivers dropping like flies, Copeland dragged his team almost single-handedly to several key divisional wins - he may have been superceded by Nik Lewis and Ken-Yon Rambo, but he's still an elite player.
Who's going to get him the ball? Toronto's three quarterbacks have exactly zero CFL experience, aside from backup Dalton Bell's brief apprenticeship in Regina. Bell was the best performer in preseason, but the starting assignment still went to NFL veteran Cleo Lemon. He'll be watched very carefully by new coach Jim Barker, but you have to imagine there will be a fairly long leash.
The club also lost its top runner in Jamal Richardson to BC, clearing space for another rookie in Cory Boyd. He's looked promising in preseason.
As better writers than I have put it, the Argos could be significantly better than last year while winning fewer games. Barring a complete collapse by Winnipeg and at least one Western team, the playoffs seem out of reach for now.
Friday, April 23, 2010
There's a hole in my bucket...
...and by bucket, I mean Stampeders' offence. Offensive line mainstay Jeff Pilon has retired.
Pilon isn't an unexpected departure; he was drafted waaaaaay back in 1999 (man, I'm getting old) and has been around long enough to play in three different pro leagues - NFL, XFL and CFL. He was openly mulling retirement after the 2008 season, but came back. Still, in the immediate aftermath of the playoff loss to Saskatchewan, Stampeders.com had a blog entry saying Pilon "still has the drive."
With Dmitri Tsoumpas also gone, not to mention Jeremaine Copeland and George Cortez, the Stamps' braintrust has a lot of plugging to do.
Thanks, Jeff. We'll miss you around here.
Pilon isn't an unexpected departure; he was drafted waaaaaay back in 1999 (man, I'm getting old) and has been around long enough to play in three different pro leagues - NFL, XFL and CFL. He was openly mulling retirement after the 2008 season, but came back. Still, in the immediate aftermath of the playoff loss to Saskatchewan, Stampeders.com had a blog entry saying Pilon "still has the drive."
With Dmitri Tsoumpas also gone, not to mention Jeremaine Copeland and George Cortez, the Stamps' braintrust has a lot of plugging to do.
Thanks, Jeff. We'll miss you around here.
Monday, April 19, 2010
2010: The year we make contact
The movie 2010 is about civilization at a crossroads. The mission to investigate the monolith discovered near Jupiter, depicted in 2001, was a failure - I mean, the people in the sequel hadn't actually seen the first movie, if you follow me. They didn't know about the Ballad of Hal and Dave; as far as they knew, things just went bad.
In 2010, a joint USA/USSR (dated, but still) team sets out to investigate the fate of the first investigation. This is a big deal, as tensions between the two superpowers are extraordinarily high - war seems likely. The irony of being on the verge of a huge and profound discovery about the nature of life and the universe, while moments away from blowing ourselves up, is humbling. It rings true even today, the "real" 2010, even if it's no longer the Russians who might push the button first. Or second.
What does that have to do with football? 2010 is a pivotal season for the CFL, which also finds itself at a crossroads. Just as mankind was on the verge of Something Big while simultaneously about to destroy itself, so is the CFL.
Let's look at CFL's Something Big first.
In many respects, the CFL hasn't been this healthy since the early 1970s. TV ratings are soaring, eclipsing those of the NFL in Canada - not that the Toronto media ever cares to report this. Aside from a genuine mess in Toronto, none of the teams seems on the verge of collapse - one team in trouble, by the CFL's standards, is no problem at all.
What's more, the league may be on the threshold of a construction boom. The CFL hasn't seen any new stadiums since 1989, when SkyDome opened. There are significant renovations underway in Vancouver, and new stadiums are in the works in Winnipeg and Regina - which may well get RETRACTABLE DOMES.
Let's pause to let that sink in. In 1989, this was beyond state-of-the-art. In 2010, it's potentially viable in Regina. That's not a knock on Saskatchewan, but a reflection of how far the CFL has come in the 21 years since.
In all, six of nine CFL cities (which includes Ottawa, more on this anon) are likely to build or significantly renovate their facilities in the next five years.
What's more, expansion is (finally) a realistic possibility. What's more, there's genuine and heated competition to be the CFL's 10th franchise - Ottawa being the obvious and official ninth. Quebec, Halifax, and Moncton all make good cases; if the CFL doesn't mind an odd number of teams, there's no reason not to look forward to teams in Quebec and one of the two Maritime cities.
That's the good news. That's the CFL's monolith, and the promise of Something Big. But like the film 2010, the CFL in 2010 may not get there, because it might just blow itself up first.
First, there's the mess in Toronto. I'm not as concerned as some about this - the Argos have proven far more durable than the city's media make it out to be (or would prefer), and the NFL's dabbling in the market has been a disappointment at best.
More dangerous is the prospect of a work stoppage. The CFL's agreement with the CFLPA is about to expire, and the two sides aren't exactly on the same page. I could explain the details, but what's the point? As always, it's about money, and how to divide the pie.
Some have commented that this isn't such a dire threat. The NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL have all survived work stoppages, and so have smaller-scale leagues like Arena Football. That's missing the point.
A large (if underappreciated) part of the CFL's renaissance has been NOT being like the others. Its players are accessible. Tickets are affordable. Every single game is on basic cable. These are not arrogant millionaires, but regular guys who happen to be phenomenally talented athletes. I dig that, and so do a lot of other Canadians. The rising attendance and ratings say so.
So no, a work stoppage wouldn't be business as usual for the CFL. It's a dire, existential threat, much like nuclear war.
Let's hope the two sides sort it out - even if they have to go to Jupiter.
In 2010, a joint USA/USSR (dated, but still) team sets out to investigate the fate of the first investigation. This is a big deal, as tensions between the two superpowers are extraordinarily high - war seems likely. The irony of being on the verge of a huge and profound discovery about the nature of life and the universe, while moments away from blowing ourselves up, is humbling. It rings true even today, the "real" 2010, even if it's no longer the Russians who might push the button first. Or second.
What does that have to do with football? 2010 is a pivotal season for the CFL, which also finds itself at a crossroads. Just as mankind was on the verge of Something Big while simultaneously about to destroy itself, so is the CFL.
Let's look at CFL's Something Big first.
In many respects, the CFL hasn't been this healthy since the early 1970s. TV ratings are soaring, eclipsing those of the NFL in Canada - not that the Toronto media ever cares to report this. Aside from a genuine mess in Toronto, none of the teams seems on the verge of collapse - one team in trouble, by the CFL's standards, is no problem at all.
What's more, the league may be on the threshold of a construction boom. The CFL hasn't seen any new stadiums since 1989, when SkyDome opened. There are significant renovations underway in Vancouver, and new stadiums are in the works in Winnipeg and Regina - which may well get RETRACTABLE DOMES.
Let's pause to let that sink in. In 1989, this was beyond state-of-the-art. In 2010, it's potentially viable in Regina. That's not a knock on Saskatchewan, but a reflection of how far the CFL has come in the 21 years since.
In all, six of nine CFL cities (which includes Ottawa, more on this anon) are likely to build or significantly renovate their facilities in the next five years.
What's more, expansion is (finally) a realistic possibility. What's more, there's genuine and heated competition to be the CFL's 10th franchise - Ottawa being the obvious and official ninth. Quebec, Halifax, and Moncton all make good cases; if the CFL doesn't mind an odd number of teams, there's no reason not to look forward to teams in Quebec and one of the two Maritime cities.
That's the good news. That's the CFL's monolith, and the promise of Something Big. But like the film 2010, the CFL in 2010 may not get there, because it might just blow itself up first.
First, there's the mess in Toronto. I'm not as concerned as some about this - the Argos have proven far more durable than the city's media make it out to be (or would prefer), and the NFL's dabbling in the market has been a disappointment at best.
More dangerous is the prospect of a work stoppage. The CFL's agreement with the CFLPA is about to expire, and the two sides aren't exactly on the same page. I could explain the details, but what's the point? As always, it's about money, and how to divide the pie.
Some have commented that this isn't such a dire threat. The NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL have all survived work stoppages, and so have smaller-scale leagues like Arena Football. That's missing the point.
A large (if underappreciated) part of the CFL's renaissance has been NOT being like the others. Its players are accessible. Tickets are affordable. Every single game is on basic cable. These are not arrogant millionaires, but regular guys who happen to be phenomenally talented athletes. I dig that, and so do a lot of other Canadians. The rising attendance and ratings say so.
So no, a work stoppage wouldn't be business as usual for the CFL. It's a dire, existential threat, much like nuclear war.
Let's hope the two sides sort it out - even if they have to go to Jupiter.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
New Rules Analysis
Never let it be said the CFL is staid. With each new year comes a few more tweaks to the league rulebook, and 2010 is no different.
The rule getting all the attention is the revised overtime format - teams will be required to attempt two-point conversions after touchdowns in OT. Everything else remains the same: each team gets a possession at the 35-yard line. If that doesn't solve anything, they switch ends and try again - and after that, it's a tie.
Analysis: I'm not necessarily opposed to this, but to be honest, didn't see the need. It's not hard to score points in the CFL, so ties are rare. If two teams play dead even for 60 minutes plus two possessions each, a tie is a perfectly appropriate result, in my humble opinion. That said, this should make already-rare overtimes even more exciting, now that the dullest play in football - the single convert - is eliminated.
Much less attention is being paid to the other tweaks, which is a shame. I'm cutting and pasting the explanation from the TSN story, but the analyses are my own.
-- A team that gives up a field goal (during regulation time) will have the option of scrimmaging from its 35-yard line instead of receiving a kickoff.
Analysis: I like this. This will create additional incentive to gamble on third downs and play for touchdowns. Is it a huge change? Hardly. But minor tweaks are almost always superior to huge changes, especially in a sport with so much history.
-- When a ball is punted, hits the ground and hits a player from the covering team, the ensuing penalty will be five rather than 15 yards.
Analysis: A correction of what was an unfair penalty. Once the ball hits the ground, it's near-impossible to guess how and where it will bounce. 15 yards for a bad bounce was far too great a swing for a random bounce.
-- There will be no penalty for pass interference if a forward pass is deemed uncatchable.
Analysis: In my humble opinion, this is the most significant of all the changes. Pass interference penalties are easily the most frustrating single aspect of the CFL. Despite what the league says, there are simply no clear or (crucially) consistent parameters as to what constitutes pass interference. I'm not talking about obvious ones, where the receiver is literally hauled down several seconds before the ball arrives - those are simple common sense. Far too often, entire games swing in the balance of what comes down to a split-second judgement call by an official who might be 30 yards away from the play.
To be clear: that's not the officials' fault. Despite media grousing, CFL officials actually do a very good job, under the circumstances. Those circumstances, of course, involve observing and judging the action of 24 players moving at top speed on a huge playing surface. And if they make a mistake, TV is right there to show the audience. Things that seem simultaneous from a distance in real time can (and often do) look very different in slow motion, zoomed in.
What does that have to do with this change? It will eliminate one or two PI calls per game, for starters. That's a good thing. It also discourages quarterbacks from taking "cheap shots," where they deliberately underthrow or overthrow a ball - with no risk of interception - and the receiver barrels into the DB, possibly resulting in a call. That call, if it comes, can literally move the ball the length of the field.
So yeah, I'm in favour. :-)
The rule getting all the attention is the revised overtime format - teams will be required to attempt two-point conversions after touchdowns in OT. Everything else remains the same: each team gets a possession at the 35-yard line. If that doesn't solve anything, they switch ends and try again - and after that, it's a tie.
Analysis: I'm not necessarily opposed to this, but to be honest, didn't see the need. It's not hard to score points in the CFL, so ties are rare. If two teams play dead even for 60 minutes plus two possessions each, a tie is a perfectly appropriate result, in my humble opinion. That said, this should make already-rare overtimes even more exciting, now that the dullest play in football - the single convert - is eliminated.
Much less attention is being paid to the other tweaks, which is a shame. I'm cutting and pasting the explanation from the TSN story, but the analyses are my own.
-- A team that gives up a field goal (during regulation time) will have the option of scrimmaging from its 35-yard line instead of receiving a kickoff.
Analysis: I like this. This will create additional incentive to gamble on third downs and play for touchdowns. Is it a huge change? Hardly. But minor tweaks are almost always superior to huge changes, especially in a sport with so much history.
-- When a ball is punted, hits the ground and hits a player from the covering team, the ensuing penalty will be five rather than 15 yards.
Analysis: A correction of what was an unfair penalty. Once the ball hits the ground, it's near-impossible to guess how and where it will bounce. 15 yards for a bad bounce was far too great a swing for a random bounce.
-- There will be no penalty for pass interference if a forward pass is deemed uncatchable.
Analysis: In my humble opinion, this is the most significant of all the changes. Pass interference penalties are easily the most frustrating single aspect of the CFL. Despite what the league says, there are simply no clear or (crucially) consistent parameters as to what constitutes pass interference. I'm not talking about obvious ones, where the receiver is literally hauled down several seconds before the ball arrives - those are simple common sense. Far too often, entire games swing in the balance of what comes down to a split-second judgement call by an official who might be 30 yards away from the play.
To be clear: that's not the officials' fault. Despite media grousing, CFL officials actually do a very good job, under the circumstances. Those circumstances, of course, involve observing and judging the action of 24 players moving at top speed on a huge playing surface. And if they make a mistake, TV is right there to show the audience. Things that seem simultaneous from a distance in real time can (and often do) look very different in slow motion, zoomed in.
What does that have to do with this change? It will eliminate one or two PI calls per game, for starters. That's a good thing. It also discourages quarterbacks from taking "cheap shots," where they deliberately underthrow or overthrow a ball - with no risk of interception - and the receiver barrels into the DB, possibly resulting in a call. That call, if it comes, can literally move the ball the length of the field.
So yeah, I'm in favour. :-)
Monday, April 12, 2010
Football's best name comes to Winnipeg
Buck Pierce is a Blue Bomber.
Fourth - and most unfortunately - the CFL has its most injury-prone player front and centre. Last week (or so) Wally Buono essentially wrote Pierce off as a professional athlete. Not as a man - he's hardly Ryan Leaf - but for the simple reason he can't stay healthy. If you've been paying attention, you know where this is going:
Dave Dickenson, like Pierce, was a very talented quarterback (more so, even) who simply took too many big hits. The problem with concussions, of course, is each one make the one after that much liklier.
Buono, like many, felt Pierce's next one was just too likely. Here's hoping he's wrong.
First, this means one of the best names in all professional sports remains in the CFL firmament. My wife, who adores such things, will be ecstatic.
Second, Winnipeg finally has a quarterback with a respectable CFL resume. He's got a record of 21-12-1 as a starter, which if carried through to Winnipeg means challenging Montreal for East Division supremacy. Nothing against the marvellous Als organization, but the CFL needs more parity in the (l)east. Badly. Getting capable players like Pierce into Toronto, Winnipeg and Hamilton is key.
Third, this makes five QBs on Winnipeg's roster: Pierce, Steven Jyles, Stefan LeFors, Ricky Santos, and Adam DiMichele. You have to think LeFors will be the odd man out. Jyles is the obvious backup (and spot starter), with Santos and DiMichele left to compete for the clipboard/developmental spot.
Fourth - and most unfortunately - the CFL has its most injury-prone player front and centre. Last week (or so) Wally Buono essentially wrote Pierce off as a professional athlete. Not as a man - he's hardly Ryan Leaf - but for the simple reason he can't stay healthy. If you've been paying attention, you know where this is going:
Buono, like many, felt Pierce's next one was just too likely. Here's hoping he's wrong.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Stamps release James and Summers
The Stamps got a head start on overhauling their roster, releasing two regulars in Shannon James and Demetris Summers.
Summers was a backup running back who despite superior speed never quite threatened Joffrey Reynolds' starting job. He was an excellent "change of pace" back and seemed to excel in the short passing game, occasionally breaking a long run. He was also a decent kick returner. But with Reynolds and Canadian backup Jon Cornish both signing extensions, Summers was pressed up against a glass ceiling, and the club may have done him a favour by setting him free. He'd arguably have a shot of starting in Toronto; at the very least, there isn't a single CFL team that wouldn't be improved with him on the roster. (Well, maybe not RB-deep Hamilton.)
Shannon James is a little more puzzling. He's been a solid starter for four years. He hasn't quite ever lived up to his potential and had a tendency to give up too many plays, but was still an above-average linebacker.
Hopefully Hufnagel has a replacement in mind.
Summers was a backup running back who despite superior speed never quite threatened Joffrey Reynolds' starting job. He was an excellent "change of pace" back and seemed to excel in the short passing game, occasionally breaking a long run. He was also a decent kick returner. But with Reynolds and Canadian backup Jon Cornish both signing extensions, Summers was pressed up against a glass ceiling, and the club may have done him a favour by setting him free. He'd arguably have a shot of starting in Toronto; at the very least, there isn't a single CFL team that wouldn't be improved with him on the roster. (Well, maybe not RB-deep Hamilton.)
Shannon James is a little more puzzling. He's been a solid starter for four years. He hasn't quite ever lived up to his potential and had a tendency to give up too many plays, but was still an above-average linebacker.
Hopefully Hufnagel has a replacement in mind.
Friday, March 26, 2010
The Barrin Rides Again
Good to see one of the CFL's current icons stick around for one more year - Barrin Simpson has signed with Saskatchewan.
Simpson made a huge splash in BC. In 2001, he was the league's top rookie, and was an all-star every year but his last. He's been somewhat quiet in Winnipeg, but now that he's with the CFL's loudest team, that will likely change.
Good move for the Riders, too: their defence was starting to look anonymous and suspicious. A guy like Simpson will go a long way in tight situations, and the locker room.
Congrats, Barrin - sadly, now that you're a Rider I must loathe you, but know that it's only out of jealousy.
Simpson made a huge splash in BC. In 2001, he was the league's top rookie, and was an all-star every year but his last. He's been somewhat quiet in Winnipeg, but now that he's with the CFL's loudest team, that will likely change.
Good move for the Riders, too: their defence was starting to look anonymous and suspicious. A guy like Simpson will go a long way in tight situations, and the locker room.
Congrats, Barrin - sadly, now that you're a Rider I must loathe you, but know that it's only out of jealousy.
Friday, March 19, 2010
...and another one
The Argos added another quarterback in former Dolphins starter Cleo Lemon, who sounds more like a vaudeville alias than a quarterback.
Just after I wrote about how they seemed to be avoiding CFL veterans in favour of journeymen with no experience here, they added...another journeyman with no experience here.
My opinion? Jim Barker's too smart not to have a safety valve. Lemon may be awesome, but there's just as good a chance he's terrible. He needs to have a "break in case of emergency" qb, who will at least be adequate when need be.
Jarious Jackson, come on down?
Just after I wrote about how they seemed to be avoiding CFL veterans in favour of journeymen with no experience here, they added...another journeyman with no experience here.
My opinion? Jim Barker's too smart not to have a safety valve. Lemon may be awesome, but there's just as good a chance he's terrible. He needs to have a "break in case of emergency" qb, who will at least be adequate when need be.
Jarious Jackson, come on down?
Thursday, March 11, 2010
The Quarterback Lottery
Staying away from available veterans like Buck Pierce, the Toronto Argonauts have signed a presumptive starting quarterback in Gibran Hamdan, who has precisely zero CFL experience. The quarterback lottery spins again.
What's the quaterback lottery, you ask? There are three ways to find a decent starting quarterback in the CFL.
You can develop them. They usually have to sit and watch for a year or three, but it's often worth the wait. Exhibits include Jeff Garcia, Darian Durant, and Casey Printers. The Stampeders hope Drew Tate or Barrick Nealy will be examples down the road.
You can let someone else develop them, and cherrypick them when they chafe without playing time. Exhibits include Damon Allen and Danny McManus. Adrian McPherson wants to be another one.
You can sign an established star, either from the US or another CFL team. Exhibits include Doug Flutie and Joe Theismann.
Finally, you can climb on board the quarterback lottery, and sign an NFL practice squad retread and/or minor pro star. Exhibits include Ricky Ray and David Archer.
As far as vagabond quarterbacks go, Hamdan has a decent resume. He's bounced around the practice squads and clipboard spots of several NFL teams, including Washington, Seattle, San Francisco, and most recently, Buffalo - where he was (briefly) no#2 behind Trent Edwards.
He started in NFL Europe, which puts him in company with Jake Delhomme and Brad Johnson, both of whom started Super Bowls, as well as viable CFL pivots like Jarious Jackson and Michael Bishop. Of course, it also puts him in company with Suth Burford, Jim Ballard and TJ Rubley.
You'd be forgiven for never hearing of any of those guys. Ballard had a cup of coffee with the Argos a few years ago, but TJ Rubley is an interesting case.
Then-Winnipeg Blue Bombers coach Jeff Reinebold brought Rubley in with much fanfare before the 1998 season. Rubley had starting experience in the NFL (7 games with the LA Rams) and NFL Europe, and was expected to perform well in the CFL.
Didn't happen. He barely lasted a year. His career ended shortly thereafter.
What's the lesson? There isn't one. For every TJ Rubley, there's quarterback lottery ticket that actually pans out, like David Archer. Similarly, Archer had played some in the NFL, backing up Randall Cunningham in Philadelphia. He won the second World Bowl in Sacramento, and followed that franchise into the CFL.
How did that turn out? He lasted five years in the CFL, throwing for 120 touchdowns. While certainly not elite, he was better than average.
Will Gibran Hamdan be another TJ Rubley, or another David Archer?
What's the quaterback lottery, you ask? There are three ways to find a decent starting quarterback in the CFL.
You can develop them. They usually have to sit and watch for a year or three, but it's often worth the wait. Exhibits include Jeff Garcia, Darian Durant, and Casey Printers. The Stampeders hope Drew Tate or Barrick Nealy will be examples down the road.
You can let someone else develop them, and cherrypick them when they chafe without playing time. Exhibits include Damon Allen and Danny McManus. Adrian McPherson wants to be another one.
You can sign an established star, either from the US or another CFL team. Exhibits include Doug Flutie and Joe Theismann.
Finally, you can climb on board the quarterback lottery, and sign an NFL practice squad retread and/or minor pro star. Exhibits include Ricky Ray and David Archer.
As far as vagabond quarterbacks go, Hamdan has a decent resume. He's bounced around the practice squads and clipboard spots of several NFL teams, including Washington, Seattle, San Francisco, and most recently, Buffalo - where he was (briefly) no#2 behind Trent Edwards.
He started in NFL Europe, which puts him in company with Jake Delhomme and Brad Johnson, both of whom started Super Bowls, as well as viable CFL pivots like Jarious Jackson and Michael Bishop. Of course, it also puts him in company with Suth Burford, Jim Ballard and TJ Rubley.
You'd be forgiven for never hearing of any of those guys. Ballard had a cup of coffee with the Argos a few years ago, but TJ Rubley is an interesting case.
Then-Winnipeg Blue Bombers coach Jeff Reinebold brought Rubley in with much fanfare before the 1998 season. Rubley had starting experience in the NFL (7 games with the LA Rams) and NFL Europe, and was expected to perform well in the CFL.
Didn't happen. He barely lasted a year. His career ended shortly thereafter.
What's the lesson? There isn't one. For every TJ Rubley, there's quarterback lottery ticket that actually pans out, like David Archer. Similarly, Archer had played some in the NFL, backing up Randall Cunningham in Philadelphia. He won the second World Bowl in Sacramento, and followed that franchise into the CFL.
How did that turn out? He lasted five years in the CFL, throwing for 120 touchdowns. While certainly not elite, he was better than average.
Will Gibran Hamdan be another TJ Rubley, or another David Archer?
Monday, March 1, 2010
Grazi, Arrivederci
This one HURTS.
We always knew we'd lose Sandro DeAngelis eventually - to Indianapolis, or Dallas. Somewhere like that, where he'd be making rather more money. But Hamilton? Does. Not. Compute.
Well - to be fair - it turns out it does compute, and the reasoning is not only simple, but noble. Sandro's from there, and wants to be closer to his family. That's all. For less money than Calgary offered him, and to a less stable organization. Kinda hard to fault that, but as a Stamps fan, my inclination is "move them to Calgary, then." Alas, him signing with the Tiger-Cats is a simpler (and cheaper) step.
Make no mistake: this is a HUGE move. DeAngelis is probably worth a single-game swing in wins alone. Kicking is much more important in the CFL, and Sandro was the most accurate kicker in the very, very long history of the league. It's not a stretch to say he was/is arguably the best ever. He was accurate, consistent, and - most important - clutch. How clutch? You'd be hard pressed to find a more clutch player in any position across the league.
For Hamilton, DeAngelis is a massive upgrade over Nick Setta, who was released in January anyway. Setta was a 76% kicker in 2009, down significantly from his first two seasons. (Ironically, it wouldn't be shocking if Setta wound up at least competing for the kicking job in Calgary.)
For Calgary, the most accurate kicker in league history isn't just tough to replace, but impossible. It's easy to forget how difficult it was to replace Mark McLoughlin beforea then-unknown DeAngelis stepped into the role. (Remember Clinton Greathouse? No? Exactly.) Unfortunately for Calgary, the next few weeks will be spent trying to find an adequate replacement.
It's hard to be upset about this move. Sure, it hurts the Stamps - more than may seem obvious for now - but situations like this are part of the CFL's charm. These guys are accessible, human, and familiar. I wish you well, Sandro.
We always knew we'd lose Sandro DeAngelis eventually - to Indianapolis, or Dallas. Somewhere like that, where he'd be making rather more money. But Hamilton? Does. Not. Compute.
Well - to be fair - it turns out it does compute, and the reasoning is not only simple, but noble. Sandro's from there, and wants to be closer to his family. That's all. For less money than Calgary offered him, and to a less stable organization. Kinda hard to fault that, but as a Stamps fan, my inclination is "move them to Calgary, then." Alas, him signing with the Tiger-Cats is a simpler (and cheaper) step.
Make no mistake: this is a HUGE move. DeAngelis is probably worth a single-game swing in wins alone. Kicking is much more important in the CFL, and Sandro was the most accurate kicker in the very, very long history of the league. It's not a stretch to say he was/is arguably the best ever. He was accurate, consistent, and - most important - clutch. How clutch? You'd be hard pressed to find a more clutch player in any position across the league.
For Hamilton, DeAngelis is a massive upgrade over Nick Setta, who was released in January anyway. Setta was a 76% kicker in 2009, down significantly from his first two seasons. (Ironically, it wouldn't be shocking if Setta wound up at least competing for the kicking job in Calgary.)
For Calgary, the most accurate kicker in league history isn't just tough to replace, but impossible. It's easy to forget how difficult it was to replace Mark McLoughlin beforea then-unknown DeAngelis stepped into the role. (Remember Clinton Greathouse? No? Exactly.) Unfortunately for Calgary, the next few weeks will be spent trying to find an adequate replacement.
It's hard to be upset about this move. Sure, it hurts the Stamps - more than may seem obvious for now - but situations like this are part of the CFL's charm. These guys are accessible, human, and familiar. I wish you well, Sandro.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Thanks, Cope
Sorry for the silence - but I have a decent excuse. I was in Hawaii. So, yeah.
Talk about horrible CFL news to come home to, though. I'll get to Sandro later, but first let me talk about Jeremaine Copeland being traded to the Toronto Argonauts.
Jeremaine Copeland saved the Stampeders. There, I said it.
Look at the record. Cope came to Calgary for the 2005 season. The previous two years, the Stamps had gone 5-13, and 4-14, respectively. That's nine wins in two seasons. Nine wins in one season is enough for a .500 record, and maybe a road ticket to a semifinal playoff game.
I was a season ticket holder then, so I can tell you: the stench of death was on this team. It wasn't a young team just trying to gel, a once-proud team decimated by injuries, or even all that competitive. The defence was respectable, but the offence simply could not move the ball. In an 18 game season, the Stamps were competitive in perhaps 8 of those games. That's far worse than the 2009 Argos.
Fans can tell. True fans are patient. They can rationalize spending money and supporting a bad team if they feel it's at least heading in the right direction. "Rebuilding" is not a dirty word.
But when a team is just incompetent, fans start to drift away - and you can't blame them.
What happened? Cope happened.
Jeremaine Copeland signed with the Stamps as a free agent after the 2004 season. I remember my giddy disbelief - he's coming HERE? Why? I mean, thank God - but why?
Today's Jeremaine Copeland plays the role of savvy veteran, but back then, he was the human highlight reel. He proudly told the Calgary media he was working on 20 new (!) and distinct (!!) touchdown dances (!!!) for all the touchdowns he was going to score in Calgary.
And like that, there was hope.
Over his time in Calgary, he evolved from no#1 threat to secondary option, but that's fine. He understood he had to make way for Nik Lewis and Ken-Yon Rambo, and was fine with that. He was a professional. And yet...when the team needed him, he was there.
This season in particular, the offence seemed to gum up. Fall out of rhythym, trip itself up, whatever - but you could see the frustration, especially in Henry Burris' very expressive face. When that happened, Cope would find ways to get open and carry the team.
Now, he's off to Toronto to help Jim Barker save another team. Good luck, Cope. You won't be forgotten here.
Talk about horrible CFL news to come home to, though. I'll get to Sandro later, but first let me talk about Jeremaine Copeland being traded to the Toronto Argonauts.
Jeremaine Copeland saved the Stampeders. There, I said it.
Look at the record. Cope came to Calgary for the 2005 season. The previous two years, the Stamps had gone 5-13, and 4-14, respectively. That's nine wins in two seasons. Nine wins in one season is enough for a .500 record, and maybe a road ticket to a semifinal playoff game.
I was a season ticket holder then, so I can tell you: the stench of death was on this team. It wasn't a young team just trying to gel, a once-proud team decimated by injuries, or even all that competitive. The defence was respectable, but the offence simply could not move the ball. In an 18 game season, the Stamps were competitive in perhaps 8 of those games. That's far worse than the 2009 Argos.
Fans can tell. True fans are patient. They can rationalize spending money and supporting a bad team if they feel it's at least heading in the right direction. "Rebuilding" is not a dirty word.
But when a team is just incompetent, fans start to drift away - and you can't blame them.
What happened? Cope happened.
Jeremaine Copeland signed with the Stamps as a free agent after the 2004 season. I remember my giddy disbelief - he's coming HERE? Why? I mean, thank God - but why?
Today's Jeremaine Copeland plays the role of savvy veteran, but back then, he was the human highlight reel. He proudly told the Calgary media he was working on 20 new (!) and distinct (!!) touchdown dances (!!!) for all the touchdowns he was going to score in Calgary.
And like that, there was hope.
Over his time in Calgary, he evolved from no#1 threat to secondary option, but that's fine. He understood he had to make way for Nik Lewis and Ken-Yon Rambo, and was fine with that. He was a professional. And yet...when the team needed him, he was there.
This season in particular, the offence seemed to gum up. Fall out of rhythym, trip itself up, whatever - but you could see the frustration, especially in Henry Burris' very expressive face. When that happened, Cope would find ways to get open and carry the team.
Now, he's off to Toronto to help Jim Barker save another team. Good luck, Cope. You won't be forgotten here.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Bombers hire LaPolice
They finally have their man in Winnipeg. Sort of.
After the head coaching job was turned down by Montreal offfensive coordinator Scott Milanovich, the Bombers were down to second (and maybe third) pickings. With that in mind, they did fairly well.
LaPolice has been around the CFL for a while now, including a stint in Winnipeg in 2002 and 2003. He's been at the reins of Saskatchewan's potent offence for two seasons, and receivers coach in 2007.
Winnipeg DESPERATELY needs someone to inject some life in their moribund offence. That's right, moribund. (Shoutout to Hugh Grant there.) The first order of business should be finding a quarterback. After the Stefan LeFors fiasco, Michael Bishop actually served as a decent stopgap, but he's not a long or even medium-term answer.
Unfortunately for the Bombers, the pickings are slim. Montreal backup Adrian MacPherson wants a shot at starting somewhere, and he might be the best prospect available. Hamilton's Adam Tafralis may also be worth a look, as he won't be playing ahead of Kevin Glenn or Quinton Porter anytime soon.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/blue-bombers-hire-lapolice-as-head-coach/article1457648/
After the head coaching job was turned down by Montreal offfensive coordinator Scott Milanovich, the Bombers were down to second (and maybe third) pickings. With that in mind, they did fairly well.
LaPolice has been around the CFL for a while now, including a stint in Winnipeg in 2002 and 2003. He's been at the reins of Saskatchewan's potent offence for two seasons, and receivers coach in 2007.
Winnipeg DESPERATELY needs someone to inject some life in their moribund offence. That's right, moribund. (Shoutout to Hugh Grant there.) The first order of business should be finding a quarterback. After the Stefan LeFors fiasco, Michael Bishop actually served as a decent stopgap, but he's not a long or even medium-term answer.
Unfortunately for the Bombers, the pickings are slim. Montreal backup Adrian MacPherson wants a shot at starting somewhere, and he might be the best prospect available. Hamilton's Adam Tafralis may also be worth a look, as he won't be playing ahead of Kevin Glenn or Quinton Porter anytime soon.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/blue-bombers-hire-lapolice-as-head-coach/article1457648/
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Rams to Toronto?
The Globe and Mail's David Naylor reports one of the three groups bidding for the St. Louis Rams wants to move them to Toronto.
Poppycock.
Sorry for the strong words, but that's insane.
First, the Rogers Centre seats about 15,000 less for football than the Rams' current home, the Edward James Dome. NFL-to-Toronto backers never take into account the simple inadequacy of the stadium.
Second, the NFL has tacitly conceded Toronto as Buffalo Bills territory, and would probably block the move. The Bills have a contract to play some games there over the next few years, and that won't be easily discarded.
Third, the Rams just moved to St. Louis (from Los Angeles) in 1994. They would be the second NFL team to leave St. Louis; the Cardinals left for Phoenix in 1988. That's two NFL moves from the same city in 22 years. If Roger Goodell is smart - and he hasn't produced much evidence either way - he'll quietly forbid this.
But by all means, Toronto, grasp onto this latest rumour as proof the NFL is just around the corner.
Poppycock.
Sorry for the strong words, but that's insane.
First, the Rogers Centre seats about 15,000 less for football than the Rams' current home, the Edward James Dome. NFL-to-Toronto backers never take into account the simple inadequacy of the stadium.
Second, the NFL has tacitly conceded Toronto as Buffalo Bills territory, and would probably block the move. The Bills have a contract to play some games there over the next few years, and that won't be easily discarded.
Third, the Rams just moved to St. Louis (from Los Angeles) in 1994. They would be the second NFL team to leave St. Louis; the Cardinals left for Phoenix in 1988. That's two NFL moves from the same city in 22 years. If Roger Goodell is smart - and he hasn't produced much evidence either way - he'll quietly forbid this.
But by all means, Toronto, grasp onto this latest rumour as proof the NFL is just around the corner.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Careful what you wish for...
Glen Suitor first made a name for himself as a fine CFL player. He's arguably made a bigger name for himself as perhaps the finest and most intelligent commentator on the league. Myself excepted, of course. Ahem.
But seriously folks, his most recent column at tsn.ca - which I can't link for some unknown reason - hits the nail on the head.
CFL fans have started to get what they always wanted: some attention from the bigger, wealthier, better-marketed football league to the south. Specifically, players who excel in the CFL now attract serious attention from NFL teams.
This sounds obvious now, but wasn't always the case. I vividly remember reading NFL preview magazines the year Jeff Garcia signed with San Francisco. The reaction? Snide disbelief.
"Unbelievably, the Niners are going with CFL refugee Jeff Garcia to back up Steve Young. He's piled up accolades in the Canadian league, but what does that matter? Not much."
No, that's not a direct quote - who keeps magazines that old? - but rest assured, it's close to verbatim.
As with anything else, language is the surest sign of change. You won't see Stefan Logan, Cameron Wake or (choke) Sandro DeAngelis referred to as "refugees" of any kind. Instead, the preferred verbiage is "veteran," or even "star."
What happened? It'd be easy to say "Jeff Garcia," and while that's partly true, it's one factor among many. After all, for the Jeff Garcias and Stefan Logans of today, there were Warren Moons and Manny Fernandezes 20 years ago.
First, as Glen Suitor points out, the culture of the NFL changed. That's no small thing, as change happens glacially in US football. Three yards and a cloud of dust now gets coaches booed and fired, not praised. As the US game opened up, it naturally started to more resemble its elder, smaller, poorer Canadian sibling. Players who excelled in Canada suddenly became viable - not just because they were suddenly good enough, but because their skills were more transferrable.
Second, and Suitor didn't get into this, US college football changed too. Until extremely recently, NCAA teams playing "pro-style" offences were few and far between. That didn't mean much for college teams focusing on winning games - the wishbone, option, etc. were effective for decades for a reason - but did retard the development of NFL players.
Why? Because you can't take an option quarterback, no matter how talented, and suddenly put him in the shotgun. It's just not what he's trained to do.
By contrast, smaller, more mobile quarterbacks who weren't afraid to run prospered in the wide-open CFL. In fact, successful CFL quarterbacks who couldn't run were and are a very small minority. (Danny McManus, Anthony Calvillo...um...)
This created a problem in the arch-conservative NFL, where building a team through the draft was exalted beyond all else. Teams stuck with high draft picks because they looked the part, regardless of performance. If they *also* happened to perform, fantastic, but it was inconceivable to pull the 6'3" blonde stud from UCLA in favor of the CFL guy who passed for 4,000 "metric yards" five years in a row.
I digress. The point is: college football changed. More and more teams play pro-style offences, from the now-standard single back to the spread.
Suddenly, those 200-plus NCAA programs were producing a lot more pro-ready players. Even a competent scouting regime couldn't catch all the good prospects - which wasn't the case in the NFL. (Only baseball draft picks are more of a gamble.)
The quality of play in both pro leagues improved, almost across the board - there was so much more talent to choose from.
Now then - back to the CFL and free agency. CFL teams used to have the luxury of bidding against the other seven (sometimes eight) CFL teams; these players were by definition unwanted by the NFL.
No matter what insecure Canadian NFL fans may think, the worst CFL team would annihilate the best NCAA team, even with US rules. To argue otherwise is simply stupid, for the same reason the worst ECHL team could beat the best CHL team - even minor professional sports consist of "college all-stars." There are simply too many college football teams for this not to be the case; your fourth-string RB at Tulane generally isn't going to sign with a pro team, when more than 150 starters become elligible every single year.
For this reason alone, the talent levels in the CFL and NFL are extremely close. The import ratio skews this, and generally the super-special players are in the NFL. But the core of "day-to-day" players are comparable.
Eventually, NFL teams hungry for talent were going to figure this out.
And most CFL fans are trying to figure out whether this is a good thing.
But seriously folks, his most recent column at tsn.ca - which I can't link for some unknown reason - hits the nail on the head.
CFL fans have started to get what they always wanted: some attention from the bigger, wealthier, better-marketed football league to the south. Specifically, players who excel in the CFL now attract serious attention from NFL teams.
This sounds obvious now, but wasn't always the case. I vividly remember reading NFL preview magazines the year Jeff Garcia signed with San Francisco. The reaction? Snide disbelief.
"Unbelievably, the Niners are going with CFL refugee Jeff Garcia to back up Steve Young. He's piled up accolades in the Canadian league, but what does that matter? Not much."
No, that's not a direct quote - who keeps magazines that old? - but rest assured, it's close to verbatim.
As with anything else, language is the surest sign of change. You won't see Stefan Logan, Cameron Wake or (choke) Sandro DeAngelis referred to as "refugees" of any kind. Instead, the preferred verbiage is "veteran," or even "star."
What happened? It'd be easy to say "Jeff Garcia," and while that's partly true, it's one factor among many. After all, for the Jeff Garcias and Stefan Logans of today, there were Warren Moons and Manny Fernandezes 20 years ago.
First, as Glen Suitor points out, the culture of the NFL changed. That's no small thing, as change happens glacially in US football. Three yards and a cloud of dust now gets coaches booed and fired, not praised. As the US game opened up, it naturally started to more resemble its elder, smaller, poorer Canadian sibling. Players who excelled in Canada suddenly became viable - not just because they were suddenly good enough, but because their skills were more transferrable.
Second, and Suitor didn't get into this, US college football changed too. Until extremely recently, NCAA teams playing "pro-style" offences were few and far between. That didn't mean much for college teams focusing on winning games - the wishbone, option, etc. were effective for decades for a reason - but did retard the development of NFL players.
Why? Because you can't take an option quarterback, no matter how talented, and suddenly put him in the shotgun. It's just not what he's trained to do.
By contrast, smaller, more mobile quarterbacks who weren't afraid to run prospered in the wide-open CFL. In fact, successful CFL quarterbacks who couldn't run were and are a very small minority. (Danny McManus, Anthony Calvillo...um...)
This created a problem in the arch-conservative NFL, where building a team through the draft was exalted beyond all else. Teams stuck with high draft picks because they looked the part, regardless of performance. If they *also* happened to perform, fantastic, but it was inconceivable to pull the 6'3" blonde stud from UCLA in favor of the CFL guy who passed for 4,000 "metric yards" five years in a row.
I digress. The point is: college football changed. More and more teams play pro-style offences, from the now-standard single back to the spread.
Suddenly, those 200-plus NCAA programs were producing a lot more pro-ready players. Even a competent scouting regime couldn't catch all the good prospects - which wasn't the case in the NFL. (Only baseball draft picks are more of a gamble.)
The quality of play in both pro leagues improved, almost across the board - there was so much more talent to choose from.
Now then - back to the CFL and free agency. CFL teams used to have the luxury of bidding against the other seven (sometimes eight) CFL teams; these players were by definition unwanted by the NFL.
No matter what insecure Canadian NFL fans may think, the worst CFL team would annihilate the best NCAA team, even with US rules. To argue otherwise is simply stupid, for the same reason the worst ECHL team could beat the best CHL team - even minor professional sports consist of "college all-stars." There are simply too many college football teams for this not to be the case; your fourth-string RB at Tulane generally isn't going to sign with a pro team, when more than 150 starters become elligible every single year.
For this reason alone, the talent levels in the CFL and NFL are extremely close. The import ratio skews this, and generally the super-special players are in the NFL. But the core of "day-to-day" players are comparable.
Eventually, NFL teams hungry for talent were going to figure this out.
And most CFL fans are trying to figure out whether this is a good thing.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Cornish back? Really? Lucky for us, I guess...
The Stamps re-signed pending FA running back Jon Cornish to an extension:
http://communities.canada.com/calgaryherald/blogs/stampsinsider/default.aspx
This pleases me, even if I am more than a little surprised. Not that the Stamps would want Cornish back - he's a versatile, dependable backup, and a Canadian to boot - but that he'd re-sign so quickly. He's good enough to at least challenge for a starting job elsewhere. With Martell Mallett leaving BC for the NFL, you'd have to think he could start there - and the RB situations in Toronto and (gasp) Edmonton don't exactly inspire confidence.
Still - very, very, very, very glad to have him back.
http://www.stampeders.com/team/player_roster/career/?id=40
http://communities.canada.com/calgaryherald/blogs/stampsinsider/default.aspx
This pleases me, even if I am more than a little surprised. Not that the Stamps would want Cornish back - he's a versatile, dependable backup, and a Canadian to boot - but that he'd re-sign so quickly. He's good enough to at least challenge for a starting job elsewhere. With Martell Mallett leaving BC for the NFL, you'd have to think he could start there - and the RB situations in Toronto and (gasp) Edmonton don't exactly inspire confidence.
Still - very, very, very, very glad to have him back.
http://www.stampeders.com/team/player_roster/career/?id=40
Friday, January 15, 2010
Thank God. No, really - thanks dude.
Pop quiz, hotshot - who is (was) the CFL's prime free agent this offseason?
Hint: any answer other than "Joffrey Reynolds" is not only wrong, but actually quite stupid. There are some fine backs in the league, but none are as durable or versatile. He's an excellent runner (duh), a fine receiver out of the backfield, he can line up in the slot, he's a good blocker, and he's even addressed the one flaw from his first few years - a tendency to fumble.
In a QB-driven league, he's on the short list of players deserving MOP consideration every year.
He's staying where he belongs, in the red and white.
Attaboy.
Hint: any answer other than "Joffrey Reynolds" is not only wrong, but actually quite stupid. There are some fine backs in the league, but none are as durable or versatile. He's an excellent runner (duh), a fine receiver out of the backfield, he can line up in the slot, he's a good blocker, and he's even addressed the one flaw from his first few years - a tendency to fumble.
In a QB-driven league, he's on the short list of players deserving MOP consideration every year.
He's staying where he belongs, in the red and white.
Attaboy.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Anyone want a quarterback?
The Alouettes' Adrian MacPherson wants out: http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/Alouettes+Adrian+McPherson+requests+trade/2439062/story.html
Long story short: he wants to play, and realizes he isn't going to in Montreal anytime soon. He isn't being particularly whiny or difficult about it - the man just wants to play. Fair enough.
Problem is, where do you go? He's under contract, so a trade would be necessary. Through the miracle of mathematics, we can determine there are seven possibilities:
NOT HAPPENING:
Hamilton - Just re-signed Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter. Don't see MacPherson as an obvious upgrade over either.
Calgary - Not going to beat out Henry Burris.
Edmonton - Not going to beat out Ricky Ray.
Saskatchewan - Darian Durant will be playing in Regina as long as he wants to.
UNLIKELY:
BC - They've got more than enough to pick from already. Could conceivably happen if MacPherson is content to "challenge" for the starting job. Then again, the way the Lions go through quarterbacks, he's likely to play - at least more than in Montreal.
MAYBE:
Toronto - It's hard to judge the guys they have now (Kerry Joseph and Cody Pickett) based on the last two years, but I'm not so sure the Argos' issues can be traced to the quarterback. Toronto doesn't have many assets to begin with, so the Als wouldn't get much back - and they're hardly likely to do division rivals any favours.
BEST GUESS:
Winnipeg - I don't think anyone sees Michael Bishop as a long-term solution. Until they get a staff in place, your guess is as good as mine.
Long story short: he wants to play, and realizes he isn't going to in Montreal anytime soon. He isn't being particularly whiny or difficult about it - the man just wants to play. Fair enough.
Problem is, where do you go? He's under contract, so a trade would be necessary. Through the miracle of mathematics, we can determine there are seven possibilities:
NOT HAPPENING:
Hamilton - Just re-signed Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter. Don't see MacPherson as an obvious upgrade over either.
Calgary - Not going to beat out Henry Burris.
Edmonton - Not going to beat out Ricky Ray.
Saskatchewan - Darian Durant will be playing in Regina as long as he wants to.
UNLIKELY:
BC - They've got more than enough to pick from already. Could conceivably happen if MacPherson is content to "challenge" for the starting job. Then again, the way the Lions go through quarterbacks, he's likely to play - at least more than in Montreal.
MAYBE:
Toronto - It's hard to judge the guys they have now (Kerry Joseph and Cody Pickett) based on the last two years, but I'm not so sure the Argos' issues can be traced to the quarterback. Toronto doesn't have many assets to begin with, so the Als wouldn't get much back - and they're hardly likely to do division rivals any favours.
BEST GUESS:
Winnipeg - I don't think anyone sees Michael Bishop as a long-term solution. Until they get a staff in place, your guess is as good as mine.
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