Week Seven Picks

As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark:

Last week 2-2, 17-9 on the year.

BC 1-5 @ Saskatchewan 4-2   (Saskatchewan favoured by 8.5)

This has the feel (and line) of a blowout, but the more you look, the more you can talk yourself into a decent game.  Consider:

- Saskatchewan's defence is the worst in the league, and seems to be regressing as the season continues.
- BC is finally playing veteran Jarious Jackson at quarterback.  Jackson isn't elite by any means, but he should generate considerably more offence than Travis Lulay's 150 yards or so.  He also stands a much better chance of handling the crowd in Regina. The Riders are susceptible to a strong ground game, and Jamal Robertson is more than capable. 
- Saskatchewan has been moving the ball well (if streaky), but BC's defence is surprisingly solid.  They kept the Lions in last week's game long after the Stampeders should've put them away. 

Do I think the Lions will actually win?  As hard as it is to imagine Wally Buono coaching a 1-6 team, I still can't quite talk myself into the upset pick.  But I hummed and hawed over it long enough that, should BC find a way to win, I'll kick myself extra hard.  Still, I think the Riders will find this one uncomfortably close.

Saskatchewan 23, BC 21

Hamilton 2-4 @ Winnipeg 2-4  (Winnipeg favoured by 3.5)

I could swear this game already happened.  Meeting for the 15th time in 17 weeks (not really), the Ticats and Bombers know each other well.  But they seem to be heading in opposite directions.

Winnipeg started the year strong, with Buck Pierce energizing the team (and fanbase) with his exciting, if risky play.  He got hurt.  Again.  Backup Steven Jyles isn't as bad as some seem to think, but he's not good enough to carry the team, and does seem to suffer through bouts of prolonged accuracy issues.  Similarly, the defence came out of week one like gangbusters, but seems to be on a gradual decline, releasing Ike Charlton last week even as he led the team in tackles.  Fed up with inconsistency, this week the team ditched kicker Alexis Serna, and plan to use former backup punter Louie Sakoda.  Yikes. 

Hamilton started slow, but despite a very suspect offensive line, have picked things up.  Kevin Glenn is playing the best football of his career right now (boy, he'd look good in a Bombers uniform...whoops) and the defence is rounding into form. 

I don't think the Hamilton stadium imbroglio will affect or distract the team - yet.  Emphasis on "yet." 

Home field has been important in this rivalry, but I just think Hamilton is better at this moment in time.

Hamilton 30, Winnipeg 18

Montreal 5-1 @ Toronto 4-2     (Montreal favoured by 7.5)

Hard to believe these teams are a combined 9-3 on the year, with one of those losses coming head-to-head.  That loss, a 41-10 Alouettes blowout win, was as decisive as CFL games get.  Can much change in two weeks?

The Argos have been relying on defence and the league's top rushing game to keep games close, but the Alouettes managed to shut Cory Boyd down almost completely.  Cleo Lemon has been improving, but he can expect the Als to try exactly what worked so well two weeks ago - he's going to have to generate a lot of yardage and points. 

He's getting there.  He's not there yet. 

Montreal 27, Toronto 16

Edmonton 1-5 @ Calgary 5-1  (Calgary favoured by 9)

I can't even describe how happy this game makes me.  I just don't see how the Stamps lose this game.

Calgary 33, Edmonton 18

(I said I can't describe it.)