Week Two Picks

Last week I went 2-2, guessing right on Calgary over Toronto and Saskatchewan over Montreal, missing on Hamilton/Winnipeg and BC/Edmonton.  Let's aim for better, shall we? 

As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark. 

Toronto (+11.5) @ Winnipeg (-11.5)
Ten days ago, this seemed a little more even.  Not "even," mind you, but "a little more even."  Toronto is about where we expected - good defence, semi-pro offence. Winnipeg surprised, throttling Hamilton last week from start to finish, a team I thought was simply better.  One game doesn't always mean much, but here's the thing: we always knew the Bombers were better than the Argos - now we're surprised just how much better. 

This won't be the shellacking many predict - Kevin Eiben will contain Fred Reid's damage, and with Adriano Belli back from suspension, Buck Pierce simply won't have as much time; the Argos did a fine job containing Henry Burris last week.  The Bombers take a surprisingly close game - again, I wouldn't give Toronto 11.5 points. 

Winnipeg 23, Toronto 15

Calgary (+2) @ Hamilton (-2)
Another game most were predicting differently last week.  Hamilton is this year's chique pick, some suggesting they could even challenge Montreal's reign over the East, while Calgary is this year's pick to disappoint - I was shocked how many people picked them to finish fourth in the West. 

As usual with chique picks, there was some (hopeful?) exaggeration.  Hamilton probably isn't as good as they seemed, and Calgary is (again, probably) on par with BC and Edmonton. Hamilton is the slight favourite here, despite the league's worst performance last week.  They somehow lost by 20, despite two return touchdowns from Marcus Thigpen - that's bad.  15 points on offence isn't going to cut it. 

Calgary's offence was frustrated last week as well, but moved the ball well - finishing drives was an issue.  The Stamps were the league's best red zone team last year, so should improve there.  (Granted, missing Jeremaine Copeland hurts.) 

Can Calgary's still-suspect pass defence continue to hold up against a veteran CFL quarterback with recognizable receivers?  Or will Kevin Glenn deliver another subpar performance and ignite a controversy?  It's impossible to be unbiased about the Stamps, but I think the tea leaves are promising here. Calgary in a high-scoring, tight game. 

Calgary 39, Hamilton 35

Saskatchewan (+2) @ BC (-2)
On the face of it, the most ludicrous line of the week - you probably won't see the Riders given points more than a handful of times of this year.  But this game might be something of a perfect storm.

The Lions are playing under the Vancouver sunshine for the first time since the 80s, and in front of a sellout crowd - also a novelty.  Instead of a ho-hum half-full BC Place - where crowd noise goes to die - the team is fired up. 

The Riders are used to atmosphere (duh) but this game has every appearance of a classic trap game.  They undoubtedly had their gaze fixed on week one, a chance to avenge the most heartbreaking Grey Cup loss imaginable in front of their home crowd - and did so in the most dramatic fashion.  Can they stay up and focused this week?  I realize these guys are professionals - and very, very good - but I just don't see how. 

BC looked dominant last week, dismantling a fragile Eskimos team despite a very average performance from Casey Printers.  Jamal Robertson won't find as many holes this week, so Printers will need to make a few plays.  Hard to tell based on just one week, but BC's pass rush looks awesome (a west coast staple) yet again.

The Riders enter the game red hot on offence and decent on defence - they gave up a lot of points, but Montreal is better than BC, and the Riders got better as the game went on.  Will it be enough to overcome the intangibles this week?   Very possibly.  But I'm guessing no. 

Do I think Saskatchewan is the superior team?  Yes.  I just don't think they'll win this one.  Call it an anomaly if you want.

BC 33, Saskatchewan 23

Montreal (-6) @ Edmonton (+6)
Six points?

That's all?  An unconverted touchdown?

It's as if the oddsmakers are taking into account Edmonton's rich history of football prowess, rather than recent performances.  Montreal is more than a touchdown better than Edmonton this year, period, full stop. 

Why am I so confident?  The way Edmonton lost against BC.  Not only was their offensive line embarrassingly bad - and the Als can bring the pass rush too - but after the game, their coaches openly questioned their mental and emotional state.  After a good start, one turnover seemed to deflate the entire team, and they never recovered.  They're like a boxer with a glass jaw; one shot in the mouth and they start questioning everything. 

Arkee Whitlock had a decent performance, and the Eskimos' receivers - especially if Kelly Campbell is good to go after a painful injury - can do a lot of damage.  But Ricky Ray was getting killed all game, and Montreal will be releasing the hounds on each and every play.  That can backfire - and probably will at least once - but Ray still has to survive another 16 games after this one. 

The Esks' defence, questioned by many before the season, held up reasonably well on the pass, but Jamal Robertson made it to the secondary untouched far too often.  They can expect a big dose of Avon Cobourne, who's just as dangerous. 

Montreal in a walk. 

Montreal 40, Edmonton 23