Week Four Picks

As always, all odds courtesy Oddshark. 

Hamilton 1-2 (+9) @ Montreal 2-1 (-9)A deceptive line, to say the least.  Montreal has escaped twice by the skin of their teeth.  But for some bad luck on the Eskimos' part, they should've lost in Edmonton; and barely beat a wobbly BC team, scoring only 16 points.  Montreal's been very good for a very long time, so it's tempting to say it's just rust. 

Hamilton, on the other hand, has been improving each week.  Granted, they had a long way to go, but they have all cylinders firing now.  They have the league's best returner in Marcus Thigpen.  Their defence held the Bombers to just 7 points last week.  The offence is humming, with Kevin Glenn playing a near-perfect game last week, and De'Andra Cobb finally getting the running game going. 


So, this is a tough one. Is Montreal (still) better than Hamilton?  Probably.  Are they nine points better?  Well....we'll see.  Debuting their refurbished stadium - in front of 25% more fans than previous capacity - may make the difference here. 

Montreal 26, Hamilton 23

BC 1-2 (-3) @ Toronto 2-1 (+3)
How in the world is BC favoured to win this game?


The Lions steamrolled Edmonton in week one, then got pummeled by the Riders and managed just 12 points at home against Montreal.  Granted, those two losses were against last year's finalists, but it never seemed as though the Lions were at or near their level. 

Casey Printers is hurt, meaning Travis Lulay will start for BC.  I still think this is an upgrade - though Buono's best option is still on the bench in Jarious Jackson.  Lulay hasn't started a game since 2007 (in another league) but Printers has lost a step since coming back from the NFL.  He'll need to be careful against Toronto's feisty and savvy defence, especially LB Kevin Eiben and HB Willie Middlebrooks, who have been all over the field. 

Toronto's offence has mostly consisted of Cory Boyd running the ball and Cleo Lemon generating about 175 yards through the air.  That's not enough to win every week, but if they don't turn the ball over, it's enough to keep games close.  That might be enough against the Lions. 



Toronto 20, BC 16

Edmonton 0-3 (+2) @ Winnipeg 1-2 (-2)

The Eskimos are the most formidable 0-3 team in recent memory.  In consecutive weeks, they had Montreal and Saskatchewan on the ropes, leading into the fourth quarter.  Both times, the wheels fell off and the Eskimos collapsed like a house of cards.  A lot of that - especially against Montreal, with two dropped touchdown passes - was bad luck.  Every team experiences unusual amounts of good or bad luck every so often, but it does tend to even out. 

They're also fortunate to catch Winnipeg without Buck Pierce, out with a knee injury.  (You're shocked, I know.)  Steven Jyles (a former Eskimo) has been a well-regarded development project for years now, but this will be just his second start.  He didn't look bad in relief work last week, but then again, the Bombers only scored seven points.  Even at his nadir, Ricky Ray is worth two or three times that. 

Bottom line: Edmonton is better than their record.  Winnipeg is exactly as good as theirs. 

Edmonton 36, Winnipeg 23

Saskatchewan 3-0 (+2) @ Calgary 2-1 (-2)
The one game I find it most difficult to be objective about. 

There's only one way to approach this: the Riders owned Calgary last year.  Owned.  The Stamps mustered one near-perfect game at home, and it earned them a tie.  Add this to the green barbarian horde effect at McMahon, and this is an uncomfortable game. 

Here's the funny thing: on paper, this actually doesn't seem like a mismatch at all.  The Stamps are an above-average team.  But their two key weaknesses, offensive line and defensive halfback, are serious ones.  The offensive line collapsed last week in Toronto, scaring the Frank back into Hank.  The Riders aren't as dominant as last year along the line, but they're still very good - and smart enough to have watched a LOT of tape from last week.

Similarly, the Stamps' lopsided secondary (strong wherever Brandon Browner is, suspect everywhere else) may get eaten alive by Saskatchewan's receiving corps, the best in the CFL. 

Sickens me to say it, but this won't end well for the heroes in red. 

Saskatchewan 30, Calgary 21